NATGAS: TTF Rises Following Zelenskiy's Call For More US Sanctions On Russia
TTF has risen ~€0.4/MWh after Zelenskiy’s comments to reporters, as he calls for further sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, and comments on Russian troop movements.
- Markets are closely watching the potential for further US sanctions against Russia.
- Trump is said to be weighing further sanctions, having grown frustrated by Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine.
- Trump posted on Truth Social yesterday that Putin was “playing with fire”, amidst pressure to endorse sanctions prepared by Republican Senators.
- “ALERT Zelensky urges US sanctions on Russian banks, energy industry” AFP
- “*ZELENSKIY SEES ONE MORE `TECHNICAL' GROUPS MEETING WITH RUSSIA
- *ZELENSKIY SAYS HE'S READY TO MEET WITH TRUMP AND PUTIN
- *KYIV SEES RUSSIA MASSING TROOPS CLOSE TO UKRAINE'S SUMY REGION” bbg
- TTF JUN 25 down 0.7% at 36.76€/MWh
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NORWAY: Bankruptcies Spike As High Rates Weigh; Focus On May 8 NB Guidance
Norwegian bankruptcies rose 22.5% Y/Y in the four quarters to Q1 2025, a sign that high interest rates are weighing on mainland activity and employment. Markets price almost 20bps of easing through the June decision, placing focus on whether any guidance for a cut will be provided on May 8.
- A reminder that in her April 8 speech, Governor Wolden-Bache noted that “considerable weight shall be given to employment – also at times when inflation deviates significantly from the target”.
- Against this backdrop, hard labour market data has shown some signs of softening but continues to hold up reasonably well overall. The LFS trend unemployment rate was 4.1% in March, steady against February’s 2-tenth upwardly revised reading.
- Employment growth was -0.8% M/M (vs -0.1% prior), corresponding to a 3m/3m rate of 0.1% (vs -0.4% prior). The Q1 Regional Network Survey indicated Q1 employment growth at 0.2%.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Cycle Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 2: 1.4131 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3906/3987 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3881 @ 08:01 BST Apr 28
- SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged, it remains bearish. A fresh cycle low last Monday highlights a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3987, the 20-day EMA
US TSY OPTIONS: Large outright put buyer
- TYM5 106.50p, bought for 2 in 15k.
Recall earlier that the 107.00p, was also bought for 2 in 15k.
