NATGAS: TTF Rises Amid Cold Weather During H1 Feb
TTF front month is edging back up towards the high of €54.8/MWh from early this week as a cold weather forecast through the first half of Feb adds pressure to already low gas storage.
- Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast slightly below normal this week and could fall further into mid month before a recovery back towards normal after.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe recover to 329.4mcm/d today after unplanned outages had driven supply to a low of 312.3mcm/d on Feb. 4, according to Bloomberg.
- Above normal European gas storage withdrawals this week have pushed stores down to 51.30% full on Feb. 4, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 59.0%.
- European LNG sendout remains strong around 456mcm/d today after rising to the highest since December the day before.
- Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are unchanged at 59.2mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 496k on Feb. 5.
- TTF MAR 25 up 1% at 53.99€/MWh
- TTF SUM 25 up 1.1% at 53.3€/MWh
- TTF WIN 25 up 0.6% at 48.42€/MWh
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AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6400 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6273/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.6275 @ 07:59 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
Despite Monday’s gains, a bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6276, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced but for now, remains intact.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 92.00/92.04
EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Estox 50: +0.04%, Dax: -0.08%, CAC: -0.21%, FTSE -0.29%, SMI +0.20%.
