NATGAS: TTF Falls to Lowest Since Dec. 20 Amid Mild March Forecast
TTF extends the trend down to the lowest since Dec. 20 as warm temperatures forecast for March ease heating demand pressure towards the end of the winter storage withdrawal season. Ukraine peace negotiations provide a reduced supply risk sentiment although Ukraine gas import requirements are supportive.
- Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast below normal through this weekend but expected to recover back above normal next week and into the second week of the outlook.
- Net withdrawal rates are near normal as total stores fall to 40.30% full on Feb. 24, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 51.4%.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated relatively unchanged at 328.7mcm/d. Gassco shows an unplanned capacity reduction of 5.4mcm/d at Skarv today due to corrective maintenance and with a planned Oseberg outage of 5.5mcm/d starting tomorrow.
- European LNG sendout rose to 449mcm/d Feb. 24 compared to around 375mm/d over the weekend and an average of 428mcm/d so far this month.
- Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 59.0mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
- ICE TTF futures aggregate trading volume was 445k on Feb. 25.
- TTF MAR 25 down 1% at 43.86€/MWh
- TTF SUM 25 down 0.9% at 44.15€/MWh
- TTF WIN 25 down 1% at 42.5€/MWh
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USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.4655 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4564 3.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4516 High Jan 21
- PRICE: 1.4391 @ 08:05 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 1.4261 Low Jan 20
- SUP 2: 1.4248 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
Recent price action in USDCAD highlights resistance at 1.4516, the Jan 21 low, and support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. Both levels also represent important short-term directional triggers. The trend condition remains bullish and a clear breach of 1.4516 would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. For bears, a move through 1.4261 and 1.4248, the 50-day EMA, would instead highlight a possible reversal.
STIR: Dovish Repricing In EUR STIRs, ECB Decision Headlines This Week
This morning’s rally in global core FI (see earlier posts for colour) has spilled over into EUR STIRs, with year-end ECB implied rates 3bps below Friday’s close. That leaves ECB-dated OIS pricing 91bps of easing through December, with 75bps of cuts priced through the first half of this year.
- December ’25 implied rates are still more hawkish than before Friday’s stronger-than-expected January flash PMIs. We note that some analysts have raised questions around the seasonality of the PMIs post-Covid, which may have biased readings higher in Q1.
- Euribor futures are +1.5 to +4.5 ticks through the blues. ERZ5 is +3.0 ticks at 97.860 this morning, widening the gap with support at 97.7950 (Jan 13 low), which contained downside on Friday.
- Thursday’s ECB decision headlines this week’s regional data calendar, with a 25bp cut unanimously expected by analysts and essentially fully priced in OIS. Our ECB preview will be released tomorrow.
- We also get flash Q4 GDP, the ECB's Bank Lending Survey, December money/credit , January EC sentiment and January flash inflation data this week, while the Fed decision and communications from US President Trump will also be in focus.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.6 |
| Mar-25 | 2.455 | -46.6 |
| Apr-25 | 2.323 | -59.8 |
| Jun-25 | 2.174 | -74.7 |
| Jul-25 | 2.124 | -79.7 |
| Sep-25 | 2.058 | -86.3 |
| Oct-25 | 2.039 | -88.3 |
| Dec-25 | 2.009 | -91.3 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
AUDUSD TECHS: Tests Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6441 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 - Jan 13 downleg
- RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 0.6326/6331 50-day EMA / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 0.6279 @ 07:59 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 0.6252 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6165/31 Low Jan 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A medium-term bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. The pair traded higher last week and in the process pierced resistance at 0.6326, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would strengthen a short-term bullish condition and open 0.6384, the Dec 13 high. The key support and bear trigger has been defined at 0.6131, the Jan 13 low.
