NATGAS: TTF Extends Decline to Lowest Since Nov. 13
TTF extends the recent trend to the lowest since Nov. 13 with demand pressures expected to ease with warmer and windier weather next week. The market remains wary for unplanned supply disruptions amid ongoing Russia/Ukraine tensions.
- Russia attacked Ukrainian energy facilities again with more attacks on gas infrastructure this time, according to Reuters.
- European temperatures are forecast to rise above normal over the weekend and remain above through most of the coming two week period, while wind generation also surges higher next week.
- European gas storage was 80.16% full on Dec. 11, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 82.65%. Strong withdrawals are providing flex supply amid higher demand due to cold weather and low wind this week.
- European LNG sendout remains strong with flows to NW Europe the highest since January at around 265mcm/d early this week, according to Bloomberg. The expected start up of the US Plaquemines LNG terminal in the coming days could help support import flows.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are at 330.6mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows an unplanned capacity reductions at Kollsnes and Kvitebjorn continuing through the weekend.
- Gas transit flows via Sudzha are at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
- Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara remains low at 50.5mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was down at 390k on Dec. 12.
- TTF JAN 25 down 0.5% at 42.6€/MWh
- TTF Q1 25 down 0.6% at 42.61€/MWh
- TTF SUM 25 down 0.3% at 41.77€/MWh
- TTF WIN 25 up 0.1% at 39.51€/MWh
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BUNDS: /SWAPS: Commerzbank Extend Long End ASW Tighteners
Commerzbank note that “overnight repos are a beacon of stability and term indications are also calming down - underscoring the fundamental re-pricing of collateral risk premiums as key for ASW-moves.”
- They go on to write “although most swap spreads are trading at historic lows, as we had anticipated, we doubt that the search for the ‘fair’ clearing price of free-floating, unbounded public debt vs. ‘fiscal risk-free’ OIS curves is complete.”
- As such, they “extend (long end) ASW shorts after the 0bp target of 10-Year Bunds vs. 6-month Euribor was hit.”
USD: EURUSD tests support, USDJPY tests resistance
- US Tnotes (TYZ4) is still finding some demand in early trade, but the {r1} EURUSD is nonetheless making another attempt at the 1.0600 level, did print a 1.0595 low Yesterday, lowest print in a Year, since November 2023.
- USDJPY also makes another push towards the its intraday high of 155.15, immediate resistance is at 155.22 initially.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg):
SILVER TECHS: Testing Trendline Support
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $32.107 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 30.840 @ 08:02 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: $29.680 - 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 is considered corrective - for now. However this corrective cycle remains in play and the metal continues to weaken. Price has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced $30.504, a trendline support. A clear break would expose $29.680, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $34.903, the Oct 23 high and bull trigger.
