NATGAS: TTF Edges Down From Peak Yesterday
TTF front month falls back from the highest since Oct. 2023 at €51.5/MWh yesterday as capacity reductions at Norway could ease in the coming days but with risk to storage withdrawals from cooler weather.
- Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to fall below normal into the coming weekend and coincide with low wind generation adding pressure to gas demand. Temperatures are forecast at or slightly below normal through the first week of February.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe remain below normal at 316.8mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg with the unplanned outage at Asgard in place until Feb. 3. Gassco shows capacity reductions totalling 27mcm/d today but gradually falling in the coming days.
- European gas storage has fallen to 55.08% full on Jan. 28, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 62.0%. Net withdrawal rates are unchanged on the day and below normal since Jan. 24.
- European LNG sendout was 327mcm/d on Jan. 28 compared to an average of 369mcm/d so far in January.
- Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 59.1mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
- ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 441k on Jan. 29.
- TTF FEB 25 down 0.5% at 50.9€/MWh
- TTF SUM 25 down 0.4% at 50.8€/MWh
- TTF WIN 25 down 0.9% at 45€/MWh
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SILVER TECHS: Bearish Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $30.676 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $28.945 @ 07:58 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Flag Formation
- RES 4: 1.4667 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4367 @ 07:52 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4277/4103 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
- SUP 4: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.42779, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt Opening call, 92.25.
- Also regarding the timing for the SETT price window, this should happen at 12:13-12:15 (GMT) for Futures and Options.
