BOE: TSC: What we've learned so far
Sep-03 14:04
- Lombardelli sees neutral potentially towards the top of the Bank's 2-4% range, later saying in the top half of the range. She does sound generally more hawkish than we had assumed. She doesn't seem to be ruling out rate cuts, but it doesn't appear as though she's likely to change her view any time soon with inflation at high levels. She also brought up food inflation as particularly important once again.
- Greene also more concerned about inflation persistence while being less concerned about downside risks to the labour market. Again - hard to see her changing her view in November.
- (Note that we had argued in our BOE Review that it would be an incredibly high bar for any of the MPC members voting for a hold in August to vote for a November cut - and this has not changed - but it appears as though the bar to Lombardelli in particular voting for more cuts next year post the inflation peak may be higher than we had expected).
- Bailey seems to be placing most emphasis on wage growth. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that if this metric comes in lower than the BOE's forecast that he would potentially favour another cut in November. He also noted that he saw the neutral rate lower than Greene and Lombardelli.
- Taylor hasn't really said much of surprise. He thinks wage growth is continuing to decline and that is the most important factor for future inflation persistence. And that the Agents are pointing towards it slowing further.
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MNI: US JUN FACTORY ORDERS -4.8%; EX-TRANSPORT NEW ORDERS +0.4%
Aug-04 14:00
- MNI: US JUN FACTORY ORDERS -4.8%; EX-TRANSPORT NEW ORDERS +0.4%
- US JUN DURABLE ORDERS -9.4%
- US JUN NONDEFENSE CAP GOODS ORDERS EX AIRCRAFT -0.8%
MNI: US JUN FACTORY ORDERS -4.8%
Aug-04 14:00
- MNI: US JUN FACTORY ORDERS -4.8%
BUNDS: Pushing above Friday's high
Aug-04 13:56
- Bund is lifted in 5k, new intraday high and now a couple of ticks above Friday's high.
- Next immediate area of interest comes at 2.600% = 130.59.
