AMERICAS OIL: Trump's Oval Office remarks on Iran

Monday's US key rates/bond options flow included:

• TYM5 112.50 calls paper paid 0-01 on 5.2K
• TYM5 113.00 calls bought for 0-01 in 22k
• TYQ5 107.50 puts bought for 0-24 in 30k
• TYQ5 107.5 puts bought for 0-24 in 33.75k vs selling TYM5 109.00 puts at 2 in 35k

• RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6         
• RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024 
• RES 1: 164.07 High May 15 
• PRICE: 163.05 @ 16:40 GMT May 19
• SUP 1: 162.23/15 50-day EMA / Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 161.60 Low May 6
• SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22  
• SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9  

EURJPY maintains a bearish tone following the pullback from its recent high. The move down is for now, considered corrective. However, the cross is testing a key support at 162.23, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high.  

Manheim Auctions's gauge of US used vehicle prices fell by the most in 13 months at-1.1% in May (after +2.8% the prior month), more or less returning the index level to where it was at the start of the year.

• On an individual month-to-month percentage change basis the series hasn't corresponded particularly well with CPI used vehicles, with Manheim instead working with a very rough 2-month lead. The last two months, used vehicle prices in CPI have dropped 0.5% M/M and 0.7% M/M.
• Manheim points to a potential uptick in May/June CPI before pulling back, but it's unknown how much of the price effect is tariff- and tariff-front-running related.