US: Trump's Immigration Policies Reverse Decades-Long Trend
An extensive study by the Pew Research Center has found that, “After more than 50 years of rapid growth, the nation’s immigrant population is now in decline.”
- Pew notes: “In January 2025, 53.3 million immigrants lived in the United States – the largest number ever recorded. In the ensuing months, however, more immigrants left the country or were deported than arrived. By June, the country’s foreign-born population had shrunk by more than a million people, marking its first decline since the 1960s.”
- Axios notes: “The U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey finds that in June, the foreign-born population was 51.9 million — down from the peak in January (53.3 million), when immigrants were a record 16% of the population. Most of the drop "is likely due to a fall in the unauthorized immigrant population," according to Pew.
- Jeffrey Passel, the Pew Research Center's senior demographer, said: "The U.S. population of working-age people isn't growing. That means the only way the workforce can grow is from new immigrants coming in. If the workforce isn't growing, it's harder for the economy."
Figure 1: % of the US Population that is Foreign Born
Source: Pew Research Center
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GBPUSD TECHS: False Trendline Break?
- RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.3689 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3577 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3563 High Jul 23
- PRICE: 1.3560 @ 16:05 BST Jul 23
- SUP 1: 1.3365 Low Jul 16 and the short-term bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
- SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
GBPUSD traded higher again Wednesday, extending the recovery from the Jul 16 low. The recent spell of weakness resulted in a break of trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach is a bearish development, however, the latest bounce also highlights a possible false break. Note that M/T signals still highlight an uptrend. The next resistance to watch is 1.3577, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger is 1.3365, Jul 16 low. A break would resume a bear theme.
SOFR OPTIONS: Large Sep'25 SOFR Call Condor Buy
- +20,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.81/95.93/96.00 call condors 2.12-2.25
- +3,000 0QZ5 97.25/97.75/98.00 1x3x2 call flys 4.0 ref 96.825
- +14,000 SFRZ5 95.75/95.87/96.25/96.37 put condors 5.75-6.0 earlier
BONDS: Europe Pi: Gilts Stand Out At "Short", OATs / BTPs Steady (2/2)
In non-German contracts:
- OAT: OAT remains in flat territory (having flirted with longs in June). The most recent week's trade was indicative of long setting.
- GILT: Gilt structural positioning remains in short territory. In contrast to other European contracts, shorts were set in the last week.
- BTP: BTP continues to extend further into "very long" territory. Trade indicative of long-setting was seen in the most recent week.
