US: Trump White House Remarks Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver remarks at the White House. LIVESTREAM
- Trump’s reciprocal tariffs took effect at 00:01 ET 05:01 BST this morning, one week after Trump signed an Executive Order confirming the action. The delay allowed US Customs and Border Protection to make necessary changes to collect the levies.
- WSJ notes: “Key details of many of the pacts agreed so far are still not finalized, or in some cases are being interpreted differently by each side. … Trade talks are far from over despite the run of agreements trumpeted by [Trump] in the past month.”
- There have also been developments in the Ukraine peace process, following a 'productive' meeting between Trump’s top negotiator Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow yesterday.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News, When asked if Trump will still impose secondary sanctions on Russia: “Well, that’s a decision the President will need to make here over the next 24 to 36 hours… But we’re going to be doing a lot of work today and tomorrow to see how close we can bring the two sides… and let him make a decision.”
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Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29
- RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23
- RES 1: 1.3690/3766 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3675 @ 16:47 BST Jul 8
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
Short-term gains in USDCAD are considered corrective and bears remain in the driver’s seat. Pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3766, is intact. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on key support and the bear trigger at 1.3540, Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.
US TSYS: Tsys Hold Narrow Range Ahead June FOMC Minutes, Tariff Talk
- Treasuries look to finish moderately weaker, off low end of a narrow session range. Second consecutive day of limited economic data (NY Fed 1Y inflation exp lower than exp) with focus on Wednesday afternoon's June FOMC minutes release at 1400ET.
- The June minutes should underline the Committee's patience in making its next rate move amid heightened tariff-related economic uncertainty, as encapsulated in the meeting's Dot Plot which showed participants largely divided between no cuts and 2 cuts by year-end.
- Markets also on edge as Pres Trump discussed tariffs at latest cabinet meeting: the administration could have been much harsher on trade, and could "go higher". Trump announced a 50% tariff on cooper and will announce more on "pharma, chips, other things.." after threatening a 200% duty on pharmaceuticals.
- Commerce Secretary Lutnick said on CNBC he "expects 15-20 trade letters to go out over the next two days" while studies on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors will be done by the end of the month.
- Currently, the Sep'25 10Y trades -4 at 110-25.5 (110-21.5L / 111-01.5H), above initial technical support at 110-17 61.8% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. Curves mixed: 2s10s +2.333 at 50.608; 5s30s -0.094 at 95.467.
- USD off highs, Bbg index BBDXY +0.32 at 1196.83 vs. 1199.72 high; Gold weaker (-31.5 at 3305.0), stocks inching lower late: SPX eminis -5.5 at 6270.75.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 0.6526 @ 16:46 BST Jul 08
- SUP 1: 0.6486 Low Jul 07
- SUP 2: 0.6472/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6472, the 50-day EMA.
