US: Trump White House Remarks Underway Shortly

• RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21  
• RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29 
• RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23  
• RES 1: 1.3690/3766 High Jul 8 / 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.3675 @ 16:47 BST Jul 8
• SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

Short-term gains in USDCAD are considered corrective and bears remain in the driver’s seat. Pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3766, is intact. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on key support and the bear trigger at 1.3540, Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.  

• Treasuries look to finish moderately weaker, off low end of a narrow session range. Second consecutive day of limited economic data (NY Fed 1Y inflation exp lower than exp) with focus on Wednesday afternoon's June FOMC minutes release at 1400ET.
• The June minutes should underline the Committee's patience in making its next rate move amid heightened tariff-related economic uncertainty, as encapsulated in the meeting's Dot Plot which showed participants largely divided between no cuts and 2 cuts by year-end.
• Markets also on edge as Pres Trump discussed tariffs at latest cabinet meeting: the administration could have been much harsher on trade, and could "go higher". Trump announced a 50% tariff on cooper and will announce more on "pharma, chips, other things.." after threatening a 200% duty on pharmaceuticals.
• Commerce Secretary Lutnick said on CNBC he "expects 15-20 trade letters to go out over the next two days" while studies on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors will be done by the end of the month.
• Currently, the Sep'25 10Y trades -4 at 110-25.5 (110-21.5L / 111-01.5H), above initial technical support at 110-17 61.8% of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg. Curves mixed: 2s10s +2.333 at 50.608; 5s30s -0.094 at 95.467.
• USD off highs, Bbg index BBDXY +0.32 at 1196.83 vs. 1199.72 high; Gold weaker (-31.5 at 3305.0), stocks inching lower late: SPX eminis -5.5 at 6270.75.

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
• RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01
• PRICE: 0.6526 @ 16:46 BST Jul 08
• SUP 1: 0.6486 Low Jul 07
• SUP 2: 0.6472/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14

The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6472, the 50-day EMA.