WHITE HOUSE: Trump-"We'll See If Trump & Zelenskyy Will Work Together"
US President Donald Trump speaking to reporters as he visits the White House museum. Livestream. On the Russia-Ukraine war, he says, "We're going to see if Putin and Zelenskyy will be working together... They don't get along too well for obvious reasons, but we'll see." and "will see if I need to be there. I would rather not."
- On TikTok: "Will watch security concerns on TikTok...Will talk to Xi about TikTok when appropriate". Claims that there are American buyers lined up.
- On Fed's Lisa Cook, Trump says he will fire her if she does not resign.
- Regarding the FBI raid on former NSA John Bolton's residence, Trump says he knows nothing about it but that "I could know about it. I could be the one starting it. I'm actually the chief law enforcement officer." On Bolton says "I'm not a fan, he's a real lowlife'.
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FED: Key Inter-Meeting Fed Speak – July 2025
Ahead of next week's Fed decision, we've published our summary of FOMC participant communications since the June FOMC meeting, including MNI's Hawk-Dove Matrix and a recap of the latest Beige Book and June meeting minutes.
EUROZONE DATA: July Cons Confidence Slightly Better Than Exp, More Focus on PMIs
Eurozone flash consumer confidence was slightly stronger than expected in July, printing at -14.7 (vs -15.0 cons, -15.3 prior) for a four-month high. However, the index remains comfortably below the 2000-2019 average of -10.9.
- Markets will pay more attention to tomorrow’s July flash PMIs for a better gauge of broader economic conditions.
- A reminder that Q2 flash GDP for member states and the Eurozone as a whole are due next Tuesday and Wednesday. Bloomberg consensus currently places Eurozone GDP at -0.1% Q/Q, notably below the ECB’s +0.2% projection in the June MPR.
- For consumption, analysts pencil in a 1.5% Y/Y reading (vs 1.4% prior), with the ECB projecting a 0.2% Q/Q sequential print.
GBP: GBP/USD Edges to New Daily High, But Ranges Contained
GBP briefly edges to a new daily high as it benefits from the fade in the USD and US equities in the 40 minutes following the opening bell - with FX futures volumes picking up to suit the modest pick-up in price action.
- The latest price action has the USD on the backfoot, but the ranges really are contained here - the USD Index is yet to test yesterday's 97.305 lows, and a further wave of greenback sales will be needed to extend the losing streak posted off the mid-July highs.
- With today's NY cut passed, markets keep an eye on the post-ECB expiry pipeline: Even with the fade off highs in EUR/USD, the options interest remains lower for the balance of the week. Over $10bln options notional rolls off between 1.1620-65 into the Thursday, Friday NY cuts - the bulk of which expires just after the ECB press conference on Thursday - which could help contain rallies in spot over the next few days.
