AMERICAS OIL: TRUMP: WE HAVE A COUPLE OF BIG TRADE LETTERS GOING OUT

• Powell says re potential changes in the SEP in Fed's 5-year review, "that part comes next" after the policy framework which is due at end-summer. The communications tools and practices will be looked at in the fall. "What we did at this meeting, though, is we, we sort of prepared the ground for that. We had a meeting where we talked at a high level about a number of ideas. The SEP is part of it."
• Powell notes that lower immigration is diminishing labor supply, keeping the unemployment rate stable as demand for labor softens:
  • "What you see is a an unemployment rate that has been really solid and at a low, low level, not really increasing. It's been in a good range and well within the range of mainstream estimates of maximum employment. Part of that is that labor demand and labor supply are kind of moving down at the same rate, labor demand is softening. You see that in job creation, but it's still kind of at a healthy level, and labor supply is is diminishing, because the immigration numbers that we see are much lower than they were. So there's two factors, supply and demand. That's what has kept them, like the unemployment rate, in a reasonably stable place."

• RES 4: 169.91 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing  
• RES 3: 168.89 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 168.01 High Jul 26 ‘24
• RES 1: 167.61 High Jun 17
• PRICE: 166.54 @ 15:53 BST Jun 18 
• SUP 1: 165.91/164.89 Low Jun 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 163.48 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 162.80/161.78 Low Jun 3 / Low May 26 
• SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and a fresh cycle high this week reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 167.47, 61.8% of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 ‘24 bear leg, has been pierced. This signals scope for a climb towards 168.01 next, the Jul 26 ‘24 high. Initial support to watch lies at 164.89, the 20-day EMA.     

• Asked about officials' divergence on rate projections, Powell calls the SEP a "forecast in a very foggy time". Says FOMC participants have a "diversity of forecasts", and that even with the same data, "they can evaluate the risks differently", including the risks that inflation will be more persistent or that the labor market will weaken. But overall, "with uncertainty, as elevated as it is, no one holds these rate paths with a lot of conviction."
• Powell says "I think as the data come in, you should see those differences diminish". "We'll make smarter and better decisions if we just wait a couple of months, or however long it takes to get a sense of of really what is going to be, the pass through of inflation, and what's going to be the effects on spending and on hiring and all those things."
• Powell asked if he would stay on as Governor if not reappointed as Chair, he says "I'm not thinking about that."