SECURITY: Trump Urges Putin To Stop "Unnecessary" Strikes On Ukraine
Apr-24 12:38
US President Donald Trump has issued a statement on Truth Social urging Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop "unnecessary" strikes on Ukraine. The statement is a tone shift from yesterday, when Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of obfuscating peace talks by blocking negotiations over Crimean sovereignty. Trump also indicated to reporters, “I think we have a deal with Russia.”
- Trump: "I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! ... Lets get the Peace Deal DONE!"
- The statement comes after French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters that Zelenskyy can't be expected to accept a ceasefire while Kyiv is being bombed
- Today, a series of meetings in Washington could determine the future of US support for Ukraine. First up, Trump will meet Norwegian Prime Minister and former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the White House. Later in the afternoon, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and NSA Mike Waltz will meet with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the Department of State. Trump’s chief negotiator Steve Witkoff is heading to Moscow for a fourth meeting with Putin tomorrow.
- The Institute for the Study of War issued a report yesterday noting Moscow’s refusal to accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine is likely to undermine ceasefire talks: “Russian officials rejected aspects of Trump's reported peace plan. Russian officials continue to give no indication that the Kremlin is willing to make any concessions of its own.”
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US TSYS: Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Short Sep SOFR Puts
Mar-25 12:38
Heavy SOFR put volume reported in the leadup to the NY session, large buying in Sep'25 95.50 midcurve put recently. Tsy option volumes more muted but leaning towards low delta puts & spds with underlying futures trading lower, curves bear steepening. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 cool slightly vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -3.9bp, Jun'25 at -16.3bp (-16.7bp), Jul'25 at -27bp (-28bp), Sep'25 -41.5bp (-42.7bp).
- SOFR Options:
- over 64,600 0QU5 95.50 puts, 4.5 ref 96.42 (45.5k piece followed by smaller lots)
- 6,000 SFRJ5 95.75 puts ref 95.865
- 2,000 SFRZ5 95.62/95.87/96.06 broken put flys ref 96.23
- Block, 4,000 SFRU5/SFRZ5 95.68/95.81 put spd spds, 0.25 adds to 23k on Monday
- 4,000 SFRM5 96.00/96.12/96.37/96.50 3x2x2x2 call condors ref 95.855
- 8,000 SFRM5 95.62/95.75 put spds ref 95.855
- 3,000 SFRZ5 96.62/97.12 call spds ref 96.23
- 2,000 0QK5 95.75/96.00 put spds ref 96.425
- 2,000 SFRN5 95.62/95.75 put spds ref 96.09
- Treasury Options:
- 4,600 TYM5 107.5/109 3x2 put spds ref 110-11
- 2,000 TUK5 103.12 puts ref 103-11
- 1,800 TYK5 109/109.5 put spds
- over 5,200 TYK5 112.5 calls, 13 ref 110-11
- 1,200 TYM5 113/115/117 call flys, ref 110-12
FOREX: USDJPY Finds Solid Resistance at the 50-Day EMA
Mar-25 12:36
- Following yesterday’s punchy USDJPY rally on the back of renewed optimism for major US equity indices, the pair has had a notable pullback on Tuesday, declining around 90 pips from the overnight highs. Today’s peak print of 150.94 closely matched a firm resistance for the pair, respecting both the Feb 07 low and the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this area would signal scope for a stronger rally.
- Overall, the primary trend direction is down, and recent gains are considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would refocus sights on initial support at 148.18, the Mar 20 low. Further out, key support and the bear trigger remain at 146.54, the Mar 11 low, of which clearance would resume the technical downtrend.
- According to a latest exclusive policy piece by MNI, Bank of Japan officials are increasingly confident that cost increases are being passed on to consumers, as shown in recent Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) price index results, potentially strengthening the case for a rate hike on May 1, MNI understands. Tokyo CPI data is due during Friday’s APAC session.
- On the US side, focus will be on PCE on Friday, expected to show a recovery in personal spending in February, although it should look much less impressive in real terms.
US TSYS: Post Philly Fed Services React
Mar-25 12:35
- Tsy futures remain weaker but paring losses after Philly Fed non-mfg index comes out much lower than prior -32.5 vs. -13.1.
- Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures trade 110-14 (-3.5) vs. 110-10 low, initial technical support below at 110-05.5 (50-day EMA). Curves scaling back from steeper levels, 2s10s +.919 at 30.499 (31.698 high), 5s30s +1.367 at 57.982 (58.949 high).
