SECURITY: Trump To Speak With Putin Today Ahead Of Zelenskyy Meeting
Oct-16 14:28
Axios reporting that President Donald Trump will hold a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin today, ahead of his Friday meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
- Trump signalled this week that he could use the potential sale of long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine as leverage with Moscow to restart the stalled ceasefire process.
- Trump told reporters on Sunday: "I might have to speak to Russia about Tomahawks. Do they want to have Tomahawks going in their direction? I don't think so... I might say, 'Look, if this war is not gonna get settled I may send them Tomahawks.' ... I think it is appropriate to bring that up."
- Comes after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told NATO defence ministers in Brussels yesterday: “If there is no path to peace in the short term then the United States, along with our allies, will take steps necessary to impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression.”
- Hegeseth’s comments, which didn't outline any specific measures, are a reversal of Hegseth's previous statements on Ukraine and the firmest signal that the Trump administration is edging closer to imposing new penalties on Russia.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) "left the door open Tuesday to voting on a long-stalled Russia sanctions bill as soon as this month," per Politico.
- Zelenskyy’s top aide Andriy Yermak led meetings with US weapons manufacturers Raytheon and Lockheed Martin this week, part of a diplomatic offensive aimed at harnessing momentum from the Gaza peace deal, which also included a meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.
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EURUSD TECHS: Trades Through The Bull Trigger
Sep-16 14:28
- RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
- RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.1923 2.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
- RES 1: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
- PRICE: 1.1839 @ 15:27 BST Sep 16
- SUP 1: 1.1694/43 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
- SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
- SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.
The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish. Resistance at 1.1743, the Aug 22 high, has recently been cleared reinforcing a bull cycle. Today’s gains have resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 1.1643.
CROSS ASSET: Equities are under renewed pressure
Sep-16 14:15
- European Banking Index (SX7E) and Especially Italian Banks are still leading European Equities lower.
- The Index was sold off on the open and has been under pressure today following a Bloomberg story suggesting that the Italian Government was planning to raise €1.5bn from lenders.
- Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo are some of the most weighted within the Index, behind the Spanish BBVA.
- BNP Paribas has been the most weighted but has fallen down somewhat in the ranking.
- In terms of flows for the Emini, 140k lots have traded down since the Cash Open.
- The Price action in Europe has dragged down US Equities and in turn have provided a bid to Bond Futures.
FOREX: Dollar Weakness Extends, EURUSD at Four-Year Highs
Sep-16 14:15
- USD weakness picking up momentum in recent minutes as EURUSD (+0.65%) extends to fresh four-year highs above 1.1829. As noted, the stealthy appreciation leading into the Fed will be providing confidence for those looking for the next leg higher for the pair, with several sell-side analysts continuing to hold strong with year-end forecasts of 1.20 and above.
- Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and it’s worth noting the Sep 10 2021 high comes in just above current spot at 1.1851.
- For USDJPY (-0.54%), we are also currently plumbing new session lows at typing, around 146.60. This narrows the gap to key short-term support at 146.21, the Aug 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would highlight a stronger bearish threat and highlight a range breakout.
