SECURITY: Trump To Sign Trilateral Peace Accord With Armenia/Azerbaijan Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to sign a trilateral peace agreement with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House. LIVESTREAM The event will provide another opportunity for Trump to style himself as peacemaker, after touting success in brokering peace deals between Rwanda/Congo, Cambodia/Thailand, and India/Pakistan.
- The accord aims to resolve a decade-long dispute over the sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh - a breakaway Azerbaijani province that was under de facto Armenian control from the dissolution of the Soviet Union until a 2020 war.
- Trump described the meeting on Truth Social as a “historic peace summit,” noting that the US will also sign “Bilateral Agreements [to] fully unlock the potential of the South Caucasus Region.”
- White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told reporters that Trump would sign deals with both Armenia and Azerbaijan on energy, technology, economic cooperation, border security, infrastructure and trade.
- A White House official said: "It's about the entire region, and [the leaders] know that that region is known to be safer and more prosperous with President Trump."
- Reuters reports that the US will have development rights to build transportation links in the strategic Zangezur Corridor, a mountainous stretch of Armenian territory between Azerbaijan and its Nakhichevan exclave.
- Politico notes: “But whether this is just a photo opportunity or a lasting end to a conflict that has undermined stability in a region dominated by Russia and Iran will depend on whether the US can address several key challenges.”
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Historical bullets
US TSYS: June FOMC Minutes Signal July Hold, Forward Options Open
- Treasuries look to finish near late session highs, little new from the June FOMC minutes with members signaling a July hold while keeping futures policy options open. The June meeting minutes captured a Committee that was leaning in a slightly more hawkish direction than earlier in the year, though probably no more than should have been expected.
- The Dot Plot released at the meeting already captured most of the story: a divided Committee retains its overall easing bias but needs varying degrees of certainty before supporting a resumption of the easing cycle.
- Overall, "participants noted that the progress in returning inflation to target had continued even though that progress had been uneven" (and in a nod to the hawks and perhaps a little surprising given decent inflation readings, "a few participants noted that there had been limited progress recently in reducing core inflation.").
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures are currently +15.5 at 111-08.5 vs. 111-10 session high (below 111-12 high on Monday) technical resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high. Curves mixed with the short end flatter: 2s10s -2.616 at 47.838.
- Projected rate cut pricing has gained momentum vs morning (*) levels: Jul'25 at -1.7bp (-1.2bp), Sep'25 at -18.6bp (-17.3bp), Oct'25 at -33.7bp (-31.7bp), Dec'25 at 52bp (-49.3bp).
- Cross asset roundup: USD inching lower, Bbg index BBDXY -0.11 at 1196.53; US stocks firmer but off early session highs: SPX eminis +35.5 at 6307.5, Gold firmer (+13.19 at 3315.11), crude mildly lower (WTI -0.07 at 68.26).
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Signals Point South
- RES 4: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 3: 1.3862 High May 29
- RES 2: 1.3798 High Jun 23
- RES 1: 1.3710/3762 High Jul 9 / 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3699 @ 16:49 BST Jul 9
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
Short-term gains in USDCAD are considered corrective and trend signals continue to point south. Pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3762, remains intact. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, sights are on key support at 1.3540, Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.
AUDUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6532 @ 16:48 BST Jul 09
- SUP 1: 0.6486 Low Jul 07
- SUP 2: 0.6474/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and recent weakness is considered corrective. A fresh cycle high earlier this month maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6474, the 50-day EMA.
