US President Donald Trump is expected to meet Republican hardliners at the White House today to drum up support for a Continuing Resolution to keep the government funded through September 30. The meeting will be another test of Trump's influence with conservatives after his outreach flipped the votes of a handful of deficit hawks on the House budget blueprint.
Figure 1: Government Shutdown in 2025, %Implied Probability
Source: Polymarket
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Bank of America outline a couple of trades “for those keen to continue the curve steepening theme - perhaps wishing to position for the possibility that the market focuses on the BoE's 2y- and 3y-ahead inflation forecasts next week (which we expect to be lowered).”
Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA), one of the senior-most members of the Senate Republican conference, has "pleaded" with President Donald Trump to exempt potash from tariffs levied on imports from Canada.