US: Trump To Deliver Remarks At White House Digital Assets Summit Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver remarks to open the White House Digital Assets Summit. Livestream
- Comes after Trump signed an Executive Order yesterday to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a 'U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile'. See the White House fact sheet here.
- The order said: “Bitcoin is the original cryptocurrency. Because there is a fixed supply of BTC, there is a strategic advantage to being among the first nations to create a strategic bitcoin reserve.”
- Trump’s crypto ‘czar’ David Sacks said on X: “It is estimated that the U.S. government owns about 200,000 bitcoin; however, there has never been a complete audit,” adding: “The U.S. will not sell any bitcoin deposited into the Reserve… The Reserve is like a digital Fort Knox for the cryptocurrency often called “digital gold.”
- Bloomberg notes that Bitcoin fell “as much as 5.7%” as “the details fell short of industry expectations.”
Figure 1: “Crypto Slides as Trump Underwhelms Expectations”
Source: Bloomberg
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Late 10Y Ultra-Bond Sale
- -3,500 UXYH5 112-21.5, post time bid at 1439:00ET, DV01 $309,000. The 10Y ultra contract trades 112-20.5 last (+25.5).
EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook
- RES 4: 164.90 High Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 161.90 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 160.70 High Feb 4
- PRICE: 159.21 @ 16:12 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 158.50 Low Feb 5
- SUP 2: 156.99 Low Dec 4
- SUP 3: 156.18 Low Dec 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 155.15 Low Sep 16 ‘24
A bear threat in EURJPY remains present. The cross traded to a fresh short-term cycle low Monday, confirming a resumption of the bear leg that started Dec 30 last year. An important retracement point at 158.24, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for an extension towards 156.18, the Dec 3 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch, and a pivot level, is 161.90, the 50-day EMA.
US LABOR MARKET: MNI US Payrolls Preview: Revisions And Seasonality In Focus
January’s employment report will receive almost as much attention for comprehensive revisions as for the monthly nonfarm payroll gains, which are expected to slow to 170-180k from December’s strong 256k.
- January is typically a difficult month to forecast payrolls (estimates range from 135k-225k), with a pronounced seasonal pattern that includes large post-holiday layoffs.
- Wildfires in Southern California could act as a small drag this month – we have seen some estimates on the order of circa 20k – although extremely cold weather didn’t fall in the payrolls reference period.
- The unemployment rate is expected to print 4.1% for a second month, while average hourly earnings and hours worked are seen relatively steady.
- The annual revisions to the establishment survey are seen lowering the level of payrolls that had previously been registered for March 2024 by around 700k, while we’ll be closely watching the revisions to the seasonal factors for the past five years. New population controls for the household survey also feature.
- There is little to no urgency among Federal Reserve policymakers to ease policy in the near future, but a large downside miss could crack the door back open to a March rate cut.
- The revisions could make it hard to get a clean immediate read on the January data’s implications for monetary policy, but with rate cuts being priced out, the FOMC may prove more sensitive to downside than upside surprises after a period in which downside risks to the labor market appeared to have dissipated.
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