US: Trump To Deliver Remarks At Oval Office Bill Signing Event Shortly

• RES 4: 168.01 High Jul 26 ‘24 
• RES 3: 167.87 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 167.47 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 2024 bear leg
• RES 1: 167.22 High Jun 16 
• PRICE: 167.03 @ 17:23 BST Jun 16 
• SUP 1: 164.41 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 163.33 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 162.80/161.78 Low Jun 3 / Low May 26 
• SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and the cross has delivered a fresh cycle high once again, today. A key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high, has been cleared, strengthening bullish conditions that confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 167.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a reversal. First support is at 164.41, the 20-day EMA.  

• Stocks rebounded from last Friday's sell-off, reacting positively early Monday to headlines that Iran is hoping intermediaries will pressure Israel to a ceasefire in return for "flexibility in nuclear negotiations" with the US.
• The early risk appetite abated as the two continued to bombard each other, Iran stating they are "ready to deal a major blow to Israel". Of note, crude prices remained weaker after late last week's spike higher (WTI -1.34 at 71.64).
• Currently, the DJIA trades up 283.05 points (0.67%) at 42480.07 (42707.73 high), S&P E-Minis up 53 points (0.88%) at 6084.5 (6055.25 high), Nasdaq up 264.1 points (1.4%) at 19670.82 (19733.31 high).
• Information Technology and Communication Services sectors continued to outperform in the second half, Advanced Micro Devices +9.20%, Teradyne +5.46%, ON Semiconductor +5.15%, Monolithic Power Systems +5.11% and Super Micro Computer +4.98% buoyed the IT sector.
• Leading gainers in the Communication Services sector included Warner Bros Discovery +5.63%, Take-Two Interactive Software +3.45%, TKO Group Holdings +3.41% and Meta Platforms +2.91%.
• Energy and Utilities sectors underperformed on the back of weaker crude prices: Diamondback Energy -3.03%, APA -2.43%, ONEOK -2.20%, Occidental Petroleum -2.11% and Targa Resources -2.08%. Meanwhile, Consolidated Edison -2.82%, NextEra Energy -2.26%, DTE Energy -2.03% and CMS Energy -1.69%.

• Surveys are indeed pointing to sharp increases in both cost pressures and selling price inflation.
• Business measures have continued to push strongly higher. The ISM services report for May saw prices paid rise further to 68.7 for its highest since Nov 2022, clearly at the expense of new orders which slid to their lowest since Dec 2022.
• This price backdrop was echoed by the S&P Global US services PMI for May reporting that “rising backlogs in part reflected delays in the delivery of ordered equipment due to tariffs, which also drove up cost inflation to its highest in nearly two years. Increased costs were passed on to clients via the steepest increase in output charges since August 2022.”
• Further, the Fed’s Beige Book published June 4th revealed that respondents in all districts indicated higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices and that those that plan to pass tariff-related costs on expect to do so within three months. 

• Consumer surveys of inflation expectations meanwhile are off April or May highs although there is a wide range to them. The University of Michigan inflation metrics remain historically elevated despite the 1Y surprisingly cooling in the preliminary June survey, the Conference Board 1Y equivalent is still on the high side whilst the NY Fed’s metrics are far less elevated.