UKRAINE: Trump-Russia Has Lost 20k Troops This Month
US President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social: "I have just been informed that almost 20,000 Russian soldiers died this month in the ridiculous War with Ukraine. Russia has lost 112,500 soldiers since the beginning of the year. That is a lot of unnecessary DEATH! Ukraine, however, has also suffered greatly. They have lost approximately 8,000 soldiers since January 1, 2025, and that number does not include their missing. Ukraine has also lost civilians, but in smaller numbers, as Russian rockets crash into Kyiv, and other Ukrainian locales. This is a War that should have never happened — This is Biden’s War, not “TRUMP’s.” I’m just here to see if I can stop it!"
- Earlier, at a conference commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Cold War-era Helsinki Accords, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for regime change in Moscow. Said, “If the world doesn't aim to change the regime in Russia, that means even after the war ends, Moscow will still try to destabilise neighbouring countries."
- Trump's shift towards more overt backing for Kyiv has seen something of a shift among Congressional Republicans. As WaPo reports, the "shift has emboldened the GOP’s pro-Ukraine contingent, including members of the Appropriations subcommittee on defense spending, to push for tightening the screws on Russia’s economy and sending more weapons to the government in Kyiv." The Senate Appropriations Committee approved a USD852bln defence budget framework earlier today. This contains USD800mn in long-term military support for Ukraine.
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FED: FHFA Director Calls For Congress Investigation Into Powell "Malfeasance"
Federal Housing Finance Administration (FHFA) director Pulte has called for a congressional investigation of Fed Chair Powell, seemingly with the objective of getting Powell removed "for cause" (per the Federal Reserve Act, a member of the Fed board can only be removed "for cause", I.e. misconduct). Pulte has previously criticized Powell and called for his resignation for not cutting rates.
- Per the FHFA official statement (as quoted by HousingWire, article is here):
- "I am asking Congress to investigate Chairman Jerome Powell, his political bias, and his deceptive Senate testimony, which is enough to be removed 'for cause.' Jerome Powell's $2.5B in capitalizations of Building Renovation Scandal stinks to high heaven, and he lied when asked about the specifics before Congress. This is nothing short of malfeasance and is worthy of 'for cause.'"
- "As Senator Cynthia Lummis said, 'he [Chairman Powell] made a number of factually inaccurate statements to the Committee regarding the Fed's plush private dining room and elevator, skylights, water features, and roof terrace,' and that 'this is typical of the mismanagement and 'don't bother me' attitude that Chair Powell has always shown.'" "Chairman Powell needs to be investigated by Congress immediately."
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 114-14 High Apr 7 and key resistance
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1 and key resistance
- RES 1: 112-12+/15 High Jul 1 / 61.8% of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- PRICE: 111-22+ @ 16:43 BST Jul 02
- SUP 1: 111-18 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 111-07+ 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 110-30 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 110-16 Low Jun 20
A bull cycle in Treasury futures remains intact, however, price reversed hard off highs into Tuesday’s close. Attention is on the next important resistance at 112-15, the 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 steep sell-off. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull theme and expose 112-23, the May 1 high. Note that the uptrend is overbought, a pullback would unwind this position. First key support to watch is 111.07+, the 20-day EMA.
SWITZERLAND DATA: CPI Analyst Consensus Skewed To The Upside [2/2]
- Consensus for the release is skewed towards the upside - with 9 analysts looking for the -0.1% median, but 5 analysts looking for a "neutral" 0.0% print. One analyst each is looking for +0.1 and -0.2% prints.
- UBS' call is for an inline -0.1% Y/Y for headline CPI: "At the component level, we expect our definition of core inflation (headline excluding energy and food) to remain unchanged at 0.5% y/y, the lowest since April 2021. Similarly, food inflation is likely to stay unchanged at -0.3% y/y. In contrast, energy inflation is expected to rise +0.7pp to -7.6% y/y, amid the recent sharp rise in oil prices.
- "However, with the unrounded forecast at -0.05% y/y and a risk of a stronger increase in energy prices, we see upside risk."
