UKRAINE: Trump Post Strikes Positive Tone, But Could Put NATO & Kyiv On Notice
There has been significant international focus on the comments from US President Donald Trump made in a Truth Social post regarding the war in Ukraine. Much of the commentary has focused on Trump's disparaging remarks about Russia's inability to win the war swiftly, and his claims that "Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble," as an indication that the president's sometimes lukewarm stance on backing Kyiv has been turned into fulsome US support.
- Undoubtedly, the tone will be seen as a positive for Kyiv and its allies, and a blow to isolationists or those opposed to US involvement in Europe in the administration, such as Vice President JD Vance or Undersecretary of Defense Policy Elbridge Colby.
- However, the words within the post may in fact indicate Trump's intentions to step back from efforts to support Ukraine and end the war.
- While appearing boosterish on Kyiv's chances in the war, the post says Ukraine could take back all of its territory "with the support of the European Union," not the US, and that its old borders can be restored "With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO,", again not the US.
- Trump's pledge to continue selling weapons to NATO member states "to do what they want with them" marks no shift from the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) scheme.
- In his UN GA address, Trump complained of the difficulty he has experienced in seeking to end the war in Ukraine, potentially indicating a disinclination to continue down the path of organised diplomacy.
- As such, Trump's post may serve to put NATO's European nations on alert that all support for Ukraine will have to come from them, rather than the US, from now on.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
GERMAN DATA: A Sixth Consecutive Improvement For Ifo Business Climate
The Germany Ifo business climate index increased for a sixth consecutive month in August as it takes it to the high of its range for the past eighteen months, but it still suggests little material upside to tepid German real GDP growth despite this.
- The Ifo Business Climate index was close to expectations as it slightly improved in August to 89.0 (cons 88.8) from 88.6 in July.
- Whilst still subdued by historical standards, it’s nevertheless at its highest since Apr 2024 on the back of six consecutive monthly improvements.
- This trend improvement has come with increases in both the current assessment and more notably the expectations indexes. This expectations-led improvement continued this month, with the expectations index rising to 91.6 (cons 90.5) from 90.8 vs the current assessment edging a tenth lower to 86.4 (cons 86.7).
- A seeming post-pandemic structural break with the historical fit between the business climate index and real GDP growth complicates the readthrough to growth implications, although rolling z-scores have more recently been useful.
- Here, the Ifo business climate has started to look a little more optimistic than the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Index (to July) but even then the Ifo series suggests little upside to still tepid German real GDP growth of 0.2% Y/Y as of Q2 (having averaged -0.4% since 1Q23).
MNI: GERMANY AUG IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 89
- MNI: GERMANY AUG IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 89
MNI EXCLUSIVE: China's equity market and economic impacts
- Advisors and analysts share their outlook on China's equity market and its economic impact.
- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
