US: Trump Policy Advisor Miller Top Candidate For Nat Sec Advisor - Axios
May-02 16:01
Axios reporting that US President Donald Trump's top policy advisor, Stephen Miller, is "garnering buzz" as the top candidate to replace ousted Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is currently serving in the role temporarily.
- Axios: "Miller already is the administration's Homeland Security adviser, and is an aggressive defender of the administration's legal push for immediate deportations of unauthorized immigrants without court hearings. One White House source told Axios via text that Miller has made the Homeland Security Council run "like clockwork," and that it's "infinitely more effective than the NSC [National Security Council] with a tiny fraction" of the staff."
- The role, which does not require Senate confirmation, is critical for steering foreign policy. It is of particular importance now, considering ongoing negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, nuclear negotiations with Iran and talks to enact a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
- Ruth Deyermond, a US foreign policy and security expert at King's College London, notes on X that Trump's elevation of Rubio to both roles, "tells us that neither position has much weight in Trump admin policymaking. It would be impossible to do both these jobs at once if either were meaningful roles in the way that they traditionally are. Foreign and security policy influence clearly lies elsewhere."
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FOREX: EUR/USD Stretches to New High Through London Close
Apr-02 16:00
A combination of EUR strength and USD weakness continues to play out through the London close, as the clocks ticks down headed into Trump's Rose Garden appearance at 1600ET/2100BST.
- The original EUR buying phase followed the Bloomberg report that the EU are planning emergency measures to guard the economy against Trump's tariffs, possibly bolstered by the rally through 1.0850 resistance and the weekly high.
- That report, twinned with headlines that Canada and Mexico are working to enhance their trade deal goes to show that tariffed countries are seemingly looking to take sharp action to both combat Trump's tariffs, as well as enhance cooperation to dampen the blow to economic growth that could follow the immediate installation of reciprocal tariffs today.
- Trump's official schedule only shows the beginning of his 'Make America Wealthy Again' event - and there's little clarity on how exactly his plans will be released: Whether he'll talk the press through a speech, or whether there will be a formal release on the White House website.
- The White House website no longer maintains a livestream page, however CSPAN and Youtube will likely have livelinks - we'll send here when available.
US: Musk To Step Back From Prominent Government Advisory Role - Politico
Apr-02 15:40
Politico reports that non-governmental advisor Elon Musk is expected to step back from his public-facing duties in President Donald Trump's White House, despite Trump remaining "pleased" with Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency initiative.
- Politico notes: "The transition, the insiders said, is likely to correspond to the end of Musk’s time as a “special government employee,” a special status that temporarily exempts him from some ethics and conflict-of-interest rules. That 130-day period is expected to expire in late May or early June."
- Should Musk's departure come ahead of the 130-day period it could be seen as the Trump administration managing political exposure to Musk's sliding approval rating. A new Marquette Law School survey found: "Approval of how Elon Musk is handling his work in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) stands at 41%, with disapproval at 58%. Musk’s personal favorability is 38%, with 60% unfavorable."
- The report doesn't offer much new information but appears to counter some reporting suggesting that Trump would look to extend Musk's temporary 130-day cap.
- Trump told reporters at the White House this week that his Cabinet secretaries have “gotten a big education” from their experience with DOGE. Trump added: “There will be a point at which the secretaries will be able to do this work [without Musk],” indicating that work to cut the federal workforce will continue.
- Notably, the report comes after a Republican underperformance in a Wisconsin Supreme Court race that was seen as a referendum on Musk's role in the Trump administration.
US TSY FUTURES: Treasury Futures Extend Decline on Musk Headline
Apr-02 15:35
- Treasury futures extend session lows - retreating to early overnight levels after Politico headlines announce that Elon Musk will step back from "governing partner" role in the next few weeks. Several new outlets have announced over the last couple days that Musk would be stepping down from DOGE by the end of May.
- Treasuries Jun'25 10Y contract trades 111-18 (-7) vs. 111-15 low, technical support below at 110-26.5 (20-day EMA).
- Curves mildly flatter, off early week highs: 2s10s -.127 at 28.245, 5s30s -0.609 at 59.195.
- Cross asset update: stocks bounce (SPX eminis +26.5 at 5701.00).Bbg US$ index -2.24 at 1270.04.
