ENERGY SECURITY: Trump on Potential Putin Meet

• Treasury futures extended lows slightly following the release of the September FOMC meeting minutes even after showing "most officials want to ease further this year".
• Tsy Dec'25 10Y contract slips to 112-18 low (-3.5), yld 4.1249% +.0019; Curves twist flatter: 2s10s -2.102 at 53.628, 5s30s -2.458 at 99.573.
• Initial technical support at 112-12.5/01 (50-day EMA / 50.0% of Jul 15 - Sep 11 up-leg)
• Projected rate cut pricing has cooled vs. early morning levels (*): Oct'25 at -23.1bp (-23.7bp), Dec'25 at -44.2bp (-45.1bp), Jan'26 at -54.1bp (-55.2bp), Mar'26 at -64.5bp (-66.5bp).

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8663 @ 16:20 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 0.8673/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15 
• SUP 3: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
• SUP 4: 0.8540 Low Jun 30

The latest pullback in EURGBP appears corrective and the trend condition is bullish. Attention is on initial firm support at 0.8673, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement - this raises importance on today’s close. Note that the key trend support lies at  0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. For bulls, key resistance and the bull trigger is 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. 

There was no breakthrough in the gov't shutdown today - both of the Senate votes have now failed. Either bill needed 60 votes: the Republican funding bill vote was 54 yes/45 no, while the Democratic package was defeated 47-52.

• This means that no members changed their votes vs prior. There's a chance we get another set of votes Thursday.
• However per Semafor's Burgess Everett on x.com, "Best informed guess right now on Senate schedule is probably a break for weekend and back on Tuesday given the lack of movement on the CR votes".
• Prediction markets imply a 83% probability of the government shutdown ending October 15 or later (per Polymarket).
• There's a 28% implied chance that the shutdown lasts 30 days or more.
• With the CPI report scheduled for October 15, it's increasingly unlikely we will get either the September payrolls or inflation data before the Fed enters the pre-Oct 29 decision blackout period on the night of Oct 17.