ENERGY: Trump Not Looking at Dropping Iran Sanctions: Truth Social

Jun-27 17:17

Donald Trump said in a Truth post that he is no longer looking at dropping sanctions on Iran and that the country must get back to the World Order Flow.

  • This has sparked an upward movement in energy markets amid fears of heightened sanctions. His previous comments that China was free to buy Iranian oil may now be in doubt.
  • Brent AUG 25 down 0.1% at 67.69$/bbl
    WTI AUG 25 down 0.1% at 65.17$/bbl
  • @realDonaldTrump

    Why would the so-called “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, of the war torn Country of Iran, say so blatantly and foolishly that he won the War with Israel, when he knows his statement is a lie, it is not so. As a man of great faith, he is not supposed to lie. His Country was decimated, his three evil Nuclear Sites were OBLITERATED, and I knew EXACTLY where he was sheltered, and would not let Israel, or the U.S. Armed Forces, by far the Greatest and Most Powerful in the World, terminate his life. I SAVED HIM FROM A VERY UGLY AND IGNOMINIOUS DEATH, and he does not have to say, “THANK YOU, PRESIDENT TRUMP!” In fact, in the final act of the War, I demanded that Israel bring back a very large group of planes, which were heading directly to Tehran, looking for a big day, perhaps the final knockout! Tremendous damage would have ensued, and many Iranians would have been killed. It was going to be the biggest attack of the War, by far. During the last few days, I was working on the possible removal of sanctions, and other things, which would have given a much better chance to Iran at a full, fast, and complete recovery - The sanctions are BITING! But no, instead I get hit with a statement of anger, hatred, and disgust, and immediately dropped all work on sanction relief, and more. Iran has to get back into the World Order flow, or things will only get worse for them. They are always so angry, hostile, and unhappy, and look at what it has gotten them - A burned out, blown up Country, with no future, a decimated Military, a horrible Economy, and DEATH all around them. They have no hope, and it will only get worse! I wish the leadership of Iran would realize that you often get more with HONEY than you do with VINEGAR. PEACE!!!

Historical bullets

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Record High Indirect Takeup Highlights Strong 5Y Auction

May-28 17:12

The 5Y Note auction was typically solid in May, with the 4.071% high yield representing a 0.4bp trade-through versus the 4.075% when-issued yield at auction cutoff.

  • This was the 6th 5Y auction in the last 7 to trade through, and May's sale came with more solid peripheral statistics than usual:
  • A record (going back to data from the early 2000s) high 78.4% takedown by indirects (seen by some as a proxy for foreign investors) was a highlight, and well up from the 69.0% prior 5-auction average.
  • And primary dealers took down just 9.2% of competitives, below the 11.7% average of the prior 5 auctions, and the lowest since January 2023 - which was in turn the lowest on record (going back to the early 2000s).
  • Bid-cover of  2.39x was exactly in line with the 5-auction average.
  • Market reaction was positive: 5s richened about 0.5bp on the 2s5s7s butterfly, with 10Y yields down 1.4bp to 4.477%.
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FED: US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.071%; ALLOTMENT 23.12%

May-28 17:02
  • US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.071%; ALLOTMENT 23.12%
  • US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 9.24% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 12.39% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 78.37% OF COMPETITIVES
  • US TSY 5Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.39

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

May-28 17:00
  • RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
  • RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
  • RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
  • RES 1: 1.1453 76.4% retracement of the Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg    
  • PRICE: 1.1298 @ 16:16 BST May 28
  • SUP 1: 1.1277 20-day EMA 
  • SUP 2: 1.1151/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
  • SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle   
  • SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

Trend conditions in EURUSD are bullish and MA studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The latest pullback is corrective. The Apr 21 - May 12 bear leg also appears to have been a correction. A resumption of gains would open 1.1453, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support is 1.1151, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would highlight a stronger reversal and signal scope for a deeper retracement.