GERMANY: Trump-Merz Should Spend Time On Ukraine & Domestic Issues, Not Iran

SOFR & Treasury options trade mixed early Tuesday, better volumes in downside puts as underlying futures see-saw higher after myriad (debatably conflicting) headlines from Trump/Hegseth on Iran war. Projected rates back to pricing marginally dovish, latest vs. late Monday lvls (*): Apr'26 at 0.5bp (+.8bp), Jun'26 at -1.5bp (-.3bp), Jul'26 at -2.9bp (-.7bp), Sep'26 at -3.8bp (-.3bp), Oct'26 -4.9bp (-.2bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • over 14,300 SFRJ6 96.12 puts, 0.5
  • 2,500 SFRZ6 96.50/97.12 4x5 call spds vs. SFRZ6 95.75 puts x4
  • over 7,300 SFRU6 97.00 calls, 7.0 ref 96.33
  • Block, 5,000 SFRZ6 96.62/96.87 call spds , 6.5 ref 96.355
  • -5,600 SFRZ6 96.50 calls, 26.5 ref 96.355/0.43%
  • 2,000 0QJ6 96.00/96.12 put spds ref 96.455
  • +2,000 SFRK6 96.18/96.25/96.37/96.43 call condors, 4.5 ref 96.33
  • -1,500 SFRU6 96.50 calls, 14.75 vs. 96.31/0.38%
  • -1,300 SFRM7 96.75/97.25 call spds, 14.5
• Treasury Options:
  • over 17,000 FVK6 109.5 calls, 9 last ref 108-08.75
  • +10,000 TYM6 111/112/113 call trees, 4-4.5
  • 1,000 USM6 114/116 call spds
  • 2,800 FVM6 108 straddles, 137 ref 108-06.75
  • +10,000 TYK6 111/111.75/112.5 call trees, 6 net ref 111-00.5
  • 2,000 TYK6 108/109 put spds
  • 4,000 TUK6 103.12 puts, 4.5
  • total volume TYK6 110.5 puts over 36,000
  • +5,000 TYK6 109.25/110.5 put spds vs 112.5 calls, 5 net/spd over
  • -12,000 TYK6 109.5/110.5 put spds, 18, total volume 109.5 put over 24.3k
  • +5,000 TYK6 109.25/110.5 put spds, 22
  • over +10,000 TYK6 109.5/110 put spds, 8 ref 110-29.5
  • 6,000 TYK6 110.5/112.5 put spds, 22 ref 110-30

• RES 4: 6903.00 High Mar 10   
• RES 3: 6802.79 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 6669.50 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 6568.50 High Mar 27     
• PRICE: 6457.50 @ 14:26 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 6353.25 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 6316.61 3.236 proj of the Feb 11 - 17 - 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 6300.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 6284.20 3.382 proj of the Feb 11 - 17 - 25 price swing 

A bear trend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and fresh cycle lows this week reinforce current conditions. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Note that MA studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 6316.61 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 6669.50, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 6802.79. A correction would allow an oversold condition to unwind.

• US Cash Opening Calls: SPX: 6,425.4 (+1.3%); DJIA: 45,750 (+1.2%/+534pts); NDX: 23,249.4 (+1.3%).

Yesterday's high in SPX is at 6,427.31.