ISRAEL: Trump-Looks Like We'll Have A Gaza Deal
A short time after PM Benjamin Netanyahu finishes his address to the UNGA (see 'ISRAEL: Netanyahu Delivers Address At UNGA', 14:30BST), US President Donald Trump says that "It looks like we'll have a Gaza deal". Earlier today, the BBC reported that former UK PM Sir Tony Blair has held discussions to potentially run a post-war transitional authority in Gaza. This authority would be supported by the UN and Gulf states before eventually handing back control of Gaza to the Palestinian people.
- The Economist: "Mr Blair could head a body called the Gaza International Transitional Authority (gita). It would seek a un mandate to be Gaza’s “supreme political and legal authority” for five years. If approved Mr Blair would have a secretariat of up to 25 people and chair a seven-person board to oversee an executive body running the territory." The selection of Blair would be controversial, given that it was under his leadership that the UK participated in the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.
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ESM ISSUANCE: USD2bln WNG New 5-Year: Allocations Out
- USD2bln WNG of the new 5-year Sep-30 ESM-Bond
- Spread set earlier at SOFR MS+39 (SA 30/360) (guidance was SOFR+40 Area, IPT was MS+42 area, that was equiv. to CT5 + ~7.3bp)
- Books closed in excess of $13.3bn excl. JLM interest
- Issuer: European Stability Mechanism (TICKER: ESM)
- Issuer Ratings: Aaa (stable) (Moody's) / AAA (stable) (S&P) / AAA (stable) (Fitch)/ AAA (stable) (Scope)
- Format: Registered Notes, Reg S (NSS) / 144A
- Ranking: Senior, Unsecured, Unsubordinated
- Listing: Luxembourg
- Settlement: 4 September 2025 (T+6 (TARGET) / T+5 (NY))
- Maturity Date: 4 September 2030 (5Y)
- HR 101% vs CT5 (T 3 ⅞ 07/31/30 )
- ISIN: Reg S: XS3171756128 / 144A: US29881WAG78
- Coupon: Fixed, Semi-annual, 30/360, Following, Unadjusted
- Bookrunners: CACIB(DM/B&D) / DB / JPM
- Timing: Hedge deadline 15.30CET / 14.30UKT / 9.30EST
The transaction comes ahead of a USD3bln redemption for the ESM in September. That line also had a 5-year maturity initially.
EURUSD TECHS: Pierces Pivot Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
- RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24
- RES 1: 1.1743 High Aug 22
- PRICE: 1.1586 @ 14:43 BST Aug 27
- SUP 1: 1.1574/1.1528 Intraday low / Low Aug 5
- SUP 2: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30
The trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and short-term weakness is for now considered corrective. However, the pair is trading lower today and has pierced key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1599. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and potentially expose key M/T support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open key resistance and the bull trigger at 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 2Y Sale
- -5,000 TUZ5 104-07, post time bid at 0937:01ET, 104-07.12 last -0.5)
