US: Trump Hints At Tariff Flexibility Ahead Of April 2 Deadline
Mar-21 16:31
US President Donald Trump has delivered a wide-ranging press availability following remarks at the Oval Office where he announced Boeing has been awarded the contract for developing sixth-generation US 'F-47' fighter planes. LIVESTREAM
- When asked if there is anything China can do to avoid tariffs on April 2, Trump says: "Well we can talk" but immediately follows with his regular justification for his tariff agenda: "Do believe me April 2nd is going to be 'liberation day' for America. We've been ripped off by every country in the world..."
- Trump adds: "I'll be speaking to [Chinese] President Xi [Jinping]. I have a great relationship with him... But we have a trillion dollar deficit, because of Biden, with China... And we have a problem with [Fentanyl]."
- When asked if any tariff exceptions for other countries are under consideration, Trump says: "Well, people are coming to me and talking about tariffs and a lot of people are asking me if they can have exceptions and once you do that for one you have to do that for all..."
- Trump adds: "I did something interestingly two weeks ago: I gave the American car companies a break because it would have been unfair if I didn't." Trump stresses that, contrary to reporting, he "didn't change his mind", he "helped some of the American companies."
- Trump says: "I don't change [my mind]... the word flexibility is an important word. Sometime's there's flexibility so there'll be flexibility but basically, it's reciprocal..."
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FED: Pre-Minutes FOMC Communications: MNI Spectrum Shifts Hawkish (1/3)
Feb-19 16:30
Since the January meeting, FOMC participants have become more hawkish – or at least, more patient. We go through all relevant FOMC member commentary since the last meeting in our Minutes preview (PDF here).
- That’s particularly the case since the Feb 7 release of January’s employment report which among other things showed an unexpected dip in the unemployment rate to 4.0% from 4.1%.
- And while multiple doves expressed optimism that January’s strong CPI print doesn’t portend a deviation from the path to 2% or preclude rate cuts this year, they have likewise acknowledged that a near-term easing looks out of the question and that any reductions will require more evidence of disinflationary progress.
- Continued uncertainty over potential tariff/fiscal/immigration shifts under the Trump administration have been flagged by multiple participants as grounds to remain patient until the impact can be assessed.
- We have shifted the dots in our Hawk-Dove Spectrum toward the hawkish end pretty much across the board – with sentiment toward a prolonged hold seemingly building.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Feb-19 16:30
- EUR/USD: Feb21 $1.0400(E2.0bln), $1.0500-18(E1.1bln); Feb24 $1.0450(E1.1bln), $1.0460-70(E4.1bln), $1.0465-70($2.4bln); Feb25 $1.0390-00(E1.2bln)
- USD/CAD: Feb21 C$1.4500($1.2bln), C$1.4600($1.7bln)
CANADA: Scotia See USDCAD Topside At 1.44 For Next Few Weeks
Feb-19 16:29
- Scotia write that “markets are perhaps passing through the eye of the tariff storm”, with CAD vols “back to the sorts of levels that traded through mid-December—still well above recent lows but below the peaks seen over most of 2024.”
- “Lower vols and calmer market conditions have coincided with USDCAD trading more in line with our high frequency fair value estimate (1.4238 today).”
- “The potential lull (until April) in tariff threats may allow spot to settle into a trading range around the 1.42 zone.”
- The significant negative rate spread to the US limits how much the CAD can improve, “even if tariff risks diminish significantly (I think the base may be around 1.40/1.41 still)”, although their longer-term fundamental fair value model sees USDCAD at about 1.40.
- “The potential for a better than worst case outcome to tariff negotiations might mean that the CAD has seen the worst of the tariff volatility already with the early February push to 1.48. History suggests these sorts of short, sharp CAD declines tend to stabilize relatively quickly. The topside of the range for the next few weeks at least may be around the 1.44 point.”
