US: Trump: GOP Should Invoke Nuclear Option To Bypass Filibuster And Reopen Govt
Oct-31 09:09
In a statement on Truth Social, President Donald Trump has called on Senate Republicans to invoke the so-called 'nuclear option' to end the 60-vote filibuster to pass legislation to reopen the federal government.
- Such a move would require a simple majority vote in the Senate. A Democratic attempt to bypass the filibuster in 2022 to pass voting rights legislation failed due to opposition from centrist Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) may encounter the same problem from institutionalist Republicans who fear handing too much power to a future Democratic government.
- Axios reported earlier this week, “Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) urged Vice President Vance during a closed-door lunch Tuesday to get President Trump to stop demanding that the Senate do away with the filibuster.”
- Indeed, three symbolic votes this week on Trump’s tariff agenda have revealed an anti-Trump majority which could reject a move to terminate the filibuster. Senators Rand Paul (R-KY), Susan Collins (R-ME), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and Mitch McConnell (R-KY) joined with Democrats to block tariffs. See TARIFFS: Senate Passes Symbolic Resolution Terminating Trump's Global Tariffs
- Trump’s statement has done little to move the dial on prediction markets, but, with Trump back from Asia and 40 million Americans set to lose SNAP benefits from November 1, a resolution may come together quickly in the coming weeks, as noted by MNI's Political Risk team yesterday: US: Johnson Downplays Senate Talks On Shutdown, Trump's Move Next Week Critical
Figure 1: When will the Government Shutdown End?
Source: Polymarket
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EUROPEAN INFLATION: HICP broadly in line with consensus: The breakdown
Oct-01 09:08
- Eurozone HICP came in at a little below the MNI tracking of 2.3% with 2-way risks at 2.23%Y/Y, but broadly in line with the market consensus.
- Core and services both rounded down to consensus expectations, although core at 2.35%Y/Y was almost 2.4%.
- It appears as though FAT (food, alcohol and tobacco) is the only notably surprise, coming in softer than expected at 3.04%Y/Y (down from 3.19%Y/Y where it was expected to remain).
- No substantial market reaction, given that the data was broadly in line with expectations.
SWITZERLAND DATA: August Retail Sales Weak But Broader Picture Solid So Far
Oct-01 09:06
Swiss (real) retail sales were rather weak in August on a sequential comparison, at -0.2% M/M.
- Looking at the drivers of the release shows that weakness was centred in the "remaining" category (which contains a lot of durable goods, table below). The August data was the first incorporating the 39% US tariffs levied on Swiss goods. The question is if this filtered through to consumer scepticism here already.
- However, on a broader 3-month moving average of the Y/Y measure, Swiss retail sales continue to grow around their long term average rate, at a current 1.5% (1.6% July).
- This means the big picture is that the Swiss consumer overall continues to screen healthy. However, we watch for potential signs of a cooling of the propensity to consume going forward.
EGB FUNDING UPDATE: Ireland To Hold 1 Bond Auction In Q4
Oct-01 09:04
- NTMA has confirmed that it will hold one auction in Q4-25, on Thursday 9 October. Details will be confirmed on Monday 6 October.
- We had pencilled in 0-1 auctions, but think that the market was looking for no more auctions this year given that the NTMA did not hold any auctions in Q4 in each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 after reaching the bottom of the funding target range.
