SECURITY: Trump Gave Iran A Two-Month Deadline For Reaching Nuclear Deal - Axios
Axios reporting that the letter US President Donald Trump delivered to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei earlier this month gave Iran a two-month deadline for reaching a new nuclear accord.
- Axios writes: "It isn't clear whether the two month-clock begins from the time the letter was delivered or from when negotiations start. But if Iran rejects Trump's outreach and doesn't negotiate, the chances of U.S. or Israeli military action against Iran's nuclear facilities would dramatically increase."
- The BBC reported on March 12 that Khamenei "rejected the idea of negotiations with the US over its nuclear programme, as Tehran confirmed receiving a letter from President Donald Trump."
- Khamenei characterised the letter at the time as a "deception of public opinion", asking "When we know they won't honour it, what's the point of negotiating?" referring to Trump's decision to unilaterally withdraw from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear accord.
- On Saturday, Trump restarted military action in Yemen and stated that he will hold Iran directly responsible for any Red Sea attacks carried out by the Yemeni Houthis. The US strikes in Yemen are expected to continue in tandem with Israeli strikes on Gaza, increasing the risk profile of the region.
- Within the last hour, Trump noted on Truth Social: "Reports are coming in that while Iran has lessened its intensity on Military Equipment and General Support to the Houthis, they are still sending large levels of Supplies. Iran must stop the sending of these Supplies IMMEDIATELY."
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ECB: Holzmann Sees “Some” Probability Of March Cut, Markets At 98%
- ECB’s Holzmann, a pre-eminent hawk and with a voting role at the March meeting, has been reported on newswires as saying there’s “some” probability of a March rate cut.
- “Some” is at odds with the market where OIS has another 25bp cut as 98% priced.
- He goes on to add that decisions in favor of more cuts are “getting harder”.
- His comments are the closest to pushback on this market pricing ahead of the March decision just over 2 weeks away.
- See our weekly summary of ECB Speak published earlier today: https://media.marketnews.com/250217_Weekly_ECB_Speak_Wrap_3f23c8ea91.pdf
MNI EXCLUSIVE: ZEW President On Outlook Ahead Of German Election
ZEW president assesses Germany's economy ahead of this weekend's elections..-On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Remains Above Last Week’s Lows
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 110-14 High Dec 14
- RES 1: 110-00 High Feb 7 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 109-07 @ 16:46 GMT Feb 17
- SUP 1: 108-04/00 Low Feb 12 / Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 107-06 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
Treasury futures remain above last week’s lows and price has risen above the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would expose key resistance and a bull trigger at 110-00, the Feb 7 high. For bears, recent weakness resulted in a break of 108-20+, the Feb 4 low, highlighting the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 13 - Feb 7. A continuation lower would open 108-00, the Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger.
