ENERGY: *TRUMP ENDS TRADE TALKS WITH CANADA: Bloomberg
Jun-27 17:50
*TRUMP ENDS TRADE TALKS WITH CANADA, CITING DIGITAL SERVICE TAX - bbg
- @realDonaldTrump
- We have just been informed that Canada, a very difficult Country to TRADE with, including the fact that they have charged our Farmers as much as 400% Tariffs, for years, on Dairy Products, has just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our American Technology Companies, which is a direct and blatant attack on our Country. They are obviously copying the European Union, which has done the same thing, and is currently under discussion with us, also. Based on this egregious Tax, we are hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately. We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
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US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: RRP Takeup Jumps, Further Rises Expected To Be Limited
May-28 17:39
Takeup of the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility jumped Wednesday, rising $35.6B to $173.6B, the second-highest total of the month ($180.4B May 19).
- ON RRP takeup has been somewhat erratic the last few sessions, though it's not expected to rise much past Wednesday's levels (ie remaining below $200B).
- One exception of course could be at the end of this week, given the typical temporary rise amid month-end dynamics.
FED: Analysts Eye Reiteration Of Patient Rate Approach In May Minutes (2/2)
May-28 17:31
Selected sell-side analysts on the May meeting minutes:
- BMO FICC: "it will be the first Minutes to incorporate two key macro events: 1) The ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, and 2) Q1’s negative real-GDP print. If anything, we'll be curious to see if there are any nuances to the Fed's game plan for a situation in which its dual-mandate goals are in tension."
- BofA: "The minutes should underscore the stagflation risks that were emphasized in the statement, and the notion that the Fed is frozen in place until there is greater clarity on policy. Any details on how the Fed would respond to stagflation, if it were to materialize, would be of interest to markets. But we doubt the Fed would want to lose optionality by being explicit on its reaction function at this stage."
- Deutsche: "With most Fed officials seemingly aligned with this messaging [wait-and-see approach to policy] before and after the meeting, the minutes are likely to signal broader consensus on the Committee for Powell’s signals. The minutes are also somewhat stale as the meeting occurred before the most recent significant trade de-escalation with China."
- Natixis: "We will be watching out for any assumptions about the final outlook for trade policy but don’t expect much new to be revealed."
- TD: "We expect them to reiterate that economic uncertainty remains a key factor for the US outlook, leading to policy guidance that has remained cautious."
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
May-28 17:30
- RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 2021
- RES 3: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3605 1.382 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3593 High May 26
- PRICE: 1.3463 @ 16:17 BST May 28
- SUP 1: 1.3444/3366 High Apr 28 and 29 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3201 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
- SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point north and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The pair has recently cleared 1.3444, the Apr 28 / 29 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and sights are on 1.3605, a Fibonacci retracement. Medium-term trend signals highlight a dominant uptrend - moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position. First key support lies at 1.3366, the 20-day EMA.
