ENERGY: Trump Considers Russia Sanctions in 2 Weeks: Bloomberg

Aug-22 17:41

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*TRUMP: THINK I'LL KNOW ATTITUDE OF RUSSIA, UKRAINE IN TWO WEEKS * *TRUMP: MAY DECIDE ON SANCTIONS ...

Historical bullets

GBPUSD TECHS: False Trendline Break?

Jul-23 17:30
  • RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 1.3689 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
  • RES 2: 1.3577 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
  • RES 1: 1.3563 High Jul 23
  • PRICE: 1.3560 @ 16:05 BST Jul 23
  • SUP 1: 1.3365 Low Jul 16 and the short-term bear trigger 
  • SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
  • SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
  • SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle   

GBPUSD traded higher again Wednesday, extending the recovery from the Jul 16 low. The recent spell of weakness resulted in a break of trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach is a bearish development, however, the latest bounce also highlights a possible false break. Note that M/T signals still highlight an uptrend. The next resistance to watch is 1.3577, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger is 1.3365, Jul 16 low. A break would resume a bear theme.              

SOFR OPTIONS: Large Sep'25 SOFR Call Condor Buy

Jul-23 17:24
  • +20,000 SFRU5 95.75/95.81/95.93/96.00 call condors 2.12-2.25
  • +3,000 0QZ5 97.25/97.75/98.00 1x3x2 call flys 4.0 ref 96.825
  • +14,000 SFRZ5 95.75/95.87/96.25/96.37 put condors 5.75-6.0 earlier

BONDS: Europe Pi: Gilts Stand Out At "Short", OATs / BTPs Steady (2/2)

Jul-23 17:12

In non-German contracts:

  • OAT: OAT remains in flat territory (having flirted with longs in June). The most recent week's trade was indicative of long setting.
  • GILT: Gilt structural positioning remains in short territory. In contrast to other European contracts, shorts were set in the last week.
  • BTP:  BTP continues to extend further into "very long" territory. Trade indicative of long-setting was seen in the most recent week.    

 

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Updated Jul 23, 2025 based on OI/price data through Jul 22, 2025. MNI Pi provides an estimate of fast money positioning in futures. Calculations are for guidance only, and are not trade recommendations in any way. Source: Eurex, ICE, Bloomberg Finance L.P., MNI Calculations

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