US-RUSSIA: Trump Confirms Call w/Belarus' Lukashenko Ahead Of Putin Summit
US President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social: "I had a wonderful talk with the highly respected President of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko. The purpose of the call was to thank him for the release of 16 prisoners. We are also discussing the release of 1,300 additional prisoners. Our conversation was a very good one. We discussed many topics, including President Putin’s visit to Alaska. I look forward to meeting President Lukashenko in the future. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"
- The call marks the first time that a sitting US president has spoken directly to Lukashenko, who has held office since 1994 and was dubbed by some media outlets as "Europe's last dictator" early in his tenure.
- Mass protests rocked the capital, Minsk, in 2020 following a presidential election that the opposition alleges was rigged. This sparked a brutal crackdown by security services.
- Since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine was launched in 2022, Belarus has been the most vocal supporter of Moscow's actions. Russia invaded northern Ukraine via Belarusian territory in the early stages of the war in spring 2022, and it continues to host Russian military forces and missiles. The two countries formed a supranational 'Union State' in 1999 in order to deepen cooperation on economic and defence policy.
- Ukraine and its allies in Europe have been strong critics of Lukashenko, with the UK and EU placing significant sanction on Belarus and its gov't officials.
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LOOK AHEAD: Updating NY Fed Pres Williams Event
NY Fed President Williams to make keynote remarks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy tonight at 1730ET, not 1830ET as earlier reported. Link to NY Fed event:
https://nyabe.org/content.aspx?page_id=4002&club_id=117725&item_id=2649656&eml=1&actr=3
GBP: GPBUSD Briefly Slips Below Key Short-Term Support
- As the dollar rally builds some intra-day momentum, GBPUSD briefly slips below a key short-term support level at 1.3371, the Jun 23 low. Below here, attention turns to 1.3335 and 1.3245, the May 20 & 19 lows respectively.
- Following a clean break of the 50-day EMA, spot subsequently breached important trendline support (drawn from the Jan 13 low) below 1.3430 yesterday, which has helped cap the topside today. Developments strengthen a bearish threat for the pair.
US DATA: NY Fed Services See Cautious Improvement In Activity And Sentiment
The NY Fed's monthly survey of regional service firms (the Business Leaders Survey) was greatly improved in July vs prior months, with the headline general activity index rising to a 6-month high -9.3 from -13.2 prior. The business climate reading likewise hit a 6-month best -34.6 (-48.3 prior).
- While the current measures are still in negative territory, suggesting that activity continues to weaken, the 6-month outlook for general activity turned positive (3.7 after -9.3) for the first time in 5 months, with improvements across business climate and capex expectations as well.
- Per the survey, "Employment edged slightly higher, and wage growth picked up. Supply availability worsened, but less so than last month."
- And there was a little easing in prices paid, falling 2 points to 64.5 (after June's 2+ year high). Prices received conversely rose 9.1 points to a fresh 2-year high 30.1.
- There are no anecdotal comments included in the NY Fed's surveys but it's safe to say that a decline in pessimism and uncertainty over the tariff policy outlook suggests the worst readings in this survey are in the past, though there likewise is little sign of a pickup in activity vs the start of the year.
- This has been a decent proxy for national ISM Services which solely based on this report is set to venture slightly further into 50+ (ie expansionary) territory in July.
