US-CHINA: Trump Claims "Amazing Meeting" With Xi
- President Trump heralded the meeting with President Xi as 12 out of 10 with China agreeing to pause its rare earth licensing regime for at least a year and the US halving fentanyl tariffs immediately.
- The President indicated that the framework mapped out by US and Chinese officials in Malaysia over last weekend was largely agreed.
- The trade deal sees China resume soybean imports from the US, a key sticking point previously.
- Additionally the leaders agreed to remove shipping tariffs and fees on trade, and work together on Ukraine. Trump is hoping that China will ramp up investments in the US, with details to follow.
- “We do not always see eye-to-eye with each other, and it is normal for the two leading economies of the world to have frictions now and then,” Xi said. “And in the face of wind, waves and challenges, you and I, at the helm of Chinese relations, should stay the right course and ensure the steady sailing forward of the giant ship of China-US relations.” (per BBG)
- The deal is likely to be viewed as not a comprehensive trade deal but potentially sets the scene for further discussions.
- US equity futures are currently modestly lower post the news, with many of Asia's major currencies weaker. China's major bourses had been mixed earlier but have mostly turned moderately positive whilst the KOSPI's early gains faded along with the NIKKEI. US bonds haven't reacted, in line with prior trends. Oil is trending lower as prior comments from Trump on China buying Russian oil appear not to have been raised.
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Historical bullets
GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Remain Intact
- RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: .3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17
- RES 2: 1.3537 High Sep 23 1
- RES 1: 1.3482 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3440 @ 06:30 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
The bear cycle in GBPUSD that started Sep 17, remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a break of 1.3491, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low. Initial key resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high. A break of this hurdle would signal a reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (Z5) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 118.170 Low Sep 10
- RES 3: 118.090 High Sep 17 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 117.943 76.4% retracement of the Sep 8 - 25 bear leg
- RES 1: 117.839 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.810@ 06:08 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 117.680/470 Low Sep 29 / 25
- SUP 2: 117.450 1.000 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing
- SUP 3: 117.299 1.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 12 - 17 price swing
- SUP 4: 117.080 Low Sep 2 (cont.)
Bobl futures traded lower last Thursday to a fresh cycle low. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This suggests short-term gains are corrective. Sights are on 117.450, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.090, the Sep 18 high. A move above this level would signal a potential reversal.
SOFR: SFRH6/U6 Sold
SFRH6/U6 ~2K given at -35.0.
