WHITE HOUSE: Trump Calls For Patience On Tariffs, Economy & Stock Market
US President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social: "This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s. I didn’t take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang.” This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!"
- The claim that the volatility seen in financial markets in recent weeks is due to an 'overhang' from the last presidency, rather than Trump's trade tariffs, may be seen as an indicator that the president is more inclined to maintain tariffs as is (or reintroduce 'reciprocal' tariffs once the 90 day exempting has expired) rather than work towards swift trade deals.
- In recent days there appears to have been progress, at least with some key trading partners, towards the finalisation of agreements that could see tariffs (at least 'reciprocal' if not the baseline 10%) lifted. See the US Daily Brief for more details.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Pierces Key Support
- RES 4: 5896.39 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5778.68 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5651.25 Low Mar 21
- PRICE: 5573.25 @ 14:13 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 5559.75/52.00 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower Friday and the contract maintains a softer tone. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at 5559.75, the Mar 13 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 19, and open 5483.30, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high.
EQUITIES: Stoxx 50 Futures Base Around Technical Support Level
Euro Stoxx 50 futures only managed a limited break of next support at 5,160.00, basing at 5,157.00 before recovering to ~5,190.00.
- News flow remains relatively limited, with tariff worry and cross-market cues dominating for much of the day.
FOREX: EURAUD Extends Session Gains, Approaches Fresh Five-Year Highs
- The strong rally for EURAUD in recent weeks has seen the cross rise the best part of 6% from the late February lows. While spot had been moderately unwinding this steep appreciation across late March, prompting a drift back to the 1.7050 region, the subsequent resumption of gains (up 0.62% today) keeps the underlying bullish trend firmly intact.
- This has been highlighted by the inability to close back below the 20-day exponential moving average, which was briefly pierced last week. This average moves up to 1.7110 and continues to mark initial support for the cross.
- On the topside, 1.7419 (March 11 high) is the key level, a breach of which would place EURAUD at levels not seen since the early onset of the pandemic in 2020. Above here, 1.7694 represents the next resistance, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-2022 downswing.
- A reminder that we have the RBA meeting during the APAC session on Tuesday. Our full preview of the decision is here: https://mni.marketnews.com/42nEpYC
