SECURITY: Trump Briefed On Military Operations In Venezuela, Keeps Options Open
CBS reports that the senior military officials have presented President Donald Trump with “updated options for potential operations in Venezuela, including strikes on land,” but no final decision has been made.
- The report tracks with a recent NYT piece claiming Trump has been presented with a range of options, “including direct attacks on military units that protect President Nicolás Maduro and moves to seize control of the country’s oil fields.”
- Comes after the US military’s most advanced carrier strike group - the USS Gerald Ford - entered the US Southern Command to bolster a buildup of US naval assets in the region. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the Ford group “will enhance and augment existing capabilities to disrupt narcotics trafficking...”
- Trump has offered mixed signals on the end goal of the operations, both hinting at strikes on Venezuelan territory aimed at ousting Maduro and appearing to rule strikes out.
- Military experts suggest the build-up is inconsistent with ongoing small-scale operations against alleged drug boats. NYT notes, “With more than 15,000 military personnel, the U.S. buildup is the largest in the region in decades.” NYT adds that the Ford could be used as a base for expanded operations or as leverage to "broker some kind of diplomatic deal" to remove Maduro.
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio downplayed reports that allies, including the United Kingdom, raised concerns over the legality of the Trump administration’s military operations: “We have very strong partnerships with the UK and other countries... nothing has changed or happened that has impeded in any way our ability to do what we’re doing, nor are we asking anyone to help us,” Rubio said.
- The issue is likely to be discussed when Rubio meets Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno at 15:30 ET 20:30 GMT and Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira at 17:00 ET 22:00 GMT.
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EURUSD TECHS: Bear Leg Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.1820 High Sep 23
- RES 2: 1.1779 High Oct 1 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 1.1680 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.1609 @ 17:05 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 1.1542 Low Oct 9
- SUP 2: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30
A bear mode in EURUSD remains in place despite the late rally off lows on Tuesday. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA and a support at 1.1646, the Sep 25 low, exposes 1.1516, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. This continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend, suggesting the move down is likely a correction - for now. Initial firm resistance is 1.1779, the Oct 1 high.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Recovery Extends
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 113-29 High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 113-17+ Intraday high
- PRICE: 113-11 @ 17:54 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 112-24 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 112-15/01 50-day EMA / 50.0% of Jul 15 - Sep 11 upleg
- SUP 3: 111-26 Low Aug 26
- SUP 4: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
Treasury prices rallied sharply on Friday and climbed again Tuesday. Last Friday’s gains resulted in a break of the 113-00 handle, signalling scope for stronger rally towards 113-29, the Sep 11 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, support at the 50-day EMA at 112-15 remains intact for now. A clear break of the average would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support.
US: Argentina: Trump-Milei Bilateral Lunch Underway Shortly
President Donald Trump is shortly due to meet Argentine President Javier Milei at the White House for a bilateral lunch. Remarks ahead of the meeting will be broadcast on C-SPAN. The pair are expected to formally announce a USD$20 billion economic lifeline designed to bolster Milei ahead of Oct. 26 midterm elections, where his libertarian party is tipped to underperform.
- Bloomberg notes Milei, “has managed to get the country’s budget into surplus and inflation down to about 30% from a peak of almost 300%. He’s also stored up market trouble by spending billions to prop up the peso, leaving it overvalued in the view of most investors.”
- Bloomberg adds the economic assistance package echoes Trump’s first term, when he, “encouraged the International Monetary Fund to approve a record $50 billion bailout… Fast-forward seven years... the IMF still hasn’t gotten its money back.”
- Mariel Fornoni, director of a polling firm in Buenos Aires, said, “Without this aid, the currency was going to hell. That was going to hit prices, erasing the inflation gains that were Milei’s strong point.”
- Kezia McKeague, managing director at McLarty Associates, wrote, “The difference between this moment in Washington and when Macri came with hat in hand to the IMF is there’s a much deeper understanding of critical minerals to US national security.”
- The Buenos Aires Times reports, Economy Minister Luis Caputo ruled out immediate plans to dollarise the economy or alter the floating exchange rate band but hinted strongly that further assistance will be forthcoming.
