SECURITY: Trump Briefed On Military Operations In Venezuela, Keeps Options Open

• RES 4: 1.1919 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.1820 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 1.1779 High Oct 1 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 1: 1.1680 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.1609 @ 17:05 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 1.1542 Low Oct 9
• SUP 2: 1.1516 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.1313 Low May 30

A bear mode in EURUSD remains in place despite the late rally off lows on Tuesday. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA and a support at 1.1646, the Sep 25 low, exposes 1.1516, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. This continues to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend, suggesting the move down is likely a correction - for now. Initial firm resistance is 1.1779, the Oct 1 high.        

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 3: 114-00   Round number resistance
• RES 2: 113-29   High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 113-17+ Intraday high 
• PRICE:‌‌ 113-11 @ 17:54 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 112-24 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 112-15/01 50-day EMA / 50.0% of Jul 15 - Sep 11 upleg
• SUP 3: 111-26   Low Aug 26
• SUP 4: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support 

Treasury prices rallied sharply on Friday and climbed again Tuesday. Last Friday’s gains resulted in a break of the 113-00 handle, signalling scope for stronger rally towards 113-29, the Sep 11 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, support at the 50-day EMA at 112-15 remains intact for now. A clear break of the average would expose 111-13+, the Aug 18 low and a key support. 

President Donald Trump is shortly due to meet Argentine President Javier Milei at the White House for a bilateral lunch. Remarks ahead of the meeting will be broadcast on C-SPAN. The pair are expected to formally announce a USD$20 billion economic lifeline designed to bolster Milei ahead of Oct. 26 midterm elections, where his libertarian party is tipped to underperform.  

• Bloomberg notes Milei, “has managed to get the country’s budget into surplus and inflation down to about 30% from a peak of almost 300%. He’s also stored up market trouble by spending billions to prop up the peso, leaving it overvalued in the view of most investors.”
• Bloomberg adds the economic assistance package echoes Trump’s first term, when he, “encouraged the International Monetary Fund to approve a record $50 billion bailout… Fast-forward seven years... the IMF still hasn’t gotten its money back.”
• Mariel Fornoni, director of a polling firm in Buenos Aires, said, “Without this aid, the currency was going to hell. That was going to hit prices, erasing the inflation gains that were Milei’s strong point.”
• Kezia McKeague, managing director at McLarty Associates, wrote, “The difference between this moment in Washington and when Macri came with hat in hand to the IMF is there’s a much deeper understanding of critical minerals to US national security.”
• The Buenos Aires Times reports, Economy Minister Luis Caputo ruled out immediate plans to dollarise the economy or alter the floating exchange rate band but hinted strongly that further assistance will be forthcoming.