EM LATAM CREDIT: Trinidad Generation: S&P Outlook to Neg - Neutral

• RES 4: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.6625 High Jul 24 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6569 High Aug 14 
• PRICE: 0.6547 @ 16:46 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

Despite trading lower Tuesday, AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery continues to signal the end of a corrective phase that started on Jul 24. Sights are on 0.6569, Aug 14 high. Clearance of this level would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.6625, the Jul 24 high. Support to watch is 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low. A clear break of it would instead resume the bear leg and highlight a stronger reversal.

The Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) released Wednesday currently estimates August retail sales ex-auto growth of 0.6% M/M (0.3% in real terms). This follows the weekly retail trade index falling 0.2% in the third week of August, after +0.1% the prior week. 

• The currently estimated inflation-adjusted 0.3% gain would be the same as July's (which saw a 0.3% nominal rise), and would mark the third consecutive sequential rise after two monthly contractions. July's CARTS estimate was below-consensus and ultimately on the low side at 0.1%.
• The final CARTS estimate will be out September 15, the day before the Census Bureau report.
• Reminder that CARTS "summarizes weekly data on retail transactions & foot traffic, gasoline sales, and consumer sentiment".

Thursday could prove eventful for Fed Board developments, with Governor nominee Miran testifying before the Senate banking committee at 1000ET, and a potential decision by the judge in Governor Cook's lawsuit against her "firing" by President Trump (a judgment had been anticipated to come as soon as Tuesday but the judge gave the Justice Department until Thursday to file another brief).

• We've fielded some client questions about whether the Trump administration could nominate a replacement for Gov Cook while she disputes her firing - the answer increasingly appears to be "no".
• Politico quotes Republican Senator Tillis as telling reporters today “I’m not going to consider anybody until that’s been adjudicated". That could effectively rule out a Cook replacement being named for now: Tillis is on the Senate banking committee on which the Republicans have a 13-11 majority, so without his support it is hard to see them confirming a new nominee.
• Per Politico, Tillis said: “I’m going to leave it to the courts to decide whether or not it’s legal... But if in fact it is to be for cause, it’s dubious whether or not — even if these events are as they’ve been described — [they’re] a basis for cause. If it’s a move to really kind of create a partisan divide in the Fed, then I’m against it on that basis....I have no interest in moves that would make the Fed really come under direct control of the executive branch."
• It's still unclear however whether Cook will participate in the September FOMC meeting that starts in just under 2 weeks' time.