USDJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
- RES 2: 149.75 High Nov 22 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 148.51 High Nov 30
- PRICE: 147.16 @ 06:44 GMT Dec 6
- SUP 1: 146.23 Loe Dec 4
- SUP 2: 145.91 Low Sep 11
- SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1
- SUP 4: 142.85 61.8% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run
USDJPY maintains a softer tone. The pair traded lower last week and breached 147.15, the Nov 21 low. The move down highlights a resumption of the bear cycle that started Nov 13. Attention is on a key support at 147.05, a trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. This line was breached Monday. A clear break would signal a stronger reversal and open 145.91, the Sep 11 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 148.51, the Nov 30 high.
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BTP TECHS: (Z3) Has Cleared Resistance
- RES 4: 115.56 High Aug 24
- RES 3: 114.01 High Sep 8
- RES 2: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
- RES 1: 112.76 High Nov 2
- PRICE: 112.55 @ Close Nov 6
- SUP 1: 110.85/09 50- and 20-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19
- SUP 3: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
- SUP 4: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
BTP futures traded higher again Friday and a short-term corrective bull cycle remains in play - for now. The contract has breached resistance at 111.17, the Oct 12 high. This has strengthened current conditions and exposes 113.69, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 110.09, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to signal a possible reversal. This would reinstate the recent bearish theme.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C November 6, 2023
Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium, the ESM, the EU and Italy are all due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E25.4bln in first round operations, up from E13.0bln last week.
- This morning, Germany will look to sell E2bln of the 6-month May 15, 2024 bubill.
- Also this morning, Netherlands will look to sell E1.0-1.5bln of the 4-month Feb 28, 2024 DTC and E1.0-2.0bln of the new 6-month Apr 29, 2024 DTC.
- This afternoon, France will look to sell up to E6.6bln of 12/21/23/51 week BTFs: E2.0-2.4bln of the 12-week Jan 31, 2024 BTF, E1.4-1.8bln of the 21-week Apr 3, 2024 BTF, E0.3-0.7bln of the 23-week Apr 17, 2024 BTF and E1.3-1.7bln of the new 51-week Oct 30, 2024 BTF.
- Tomorrow morning, Spain will look to sell the 6-month May 10, 2024 letras and the new 12-month Nov 8, 2024 letras, with details to be announced on Monday.
- Also tomorrow morning, Belgium will look to sell E0.8-1.2bln of the 4-month Mar 7, 2024 TC.
- Finally tomorrow, the ESM will look to sell up to E1.1bln of the new 3-month Feb 8, 2024 bills.
- On Wednesday, the EU will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Feb 9, 2024 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 6-month May 10, 2024 EU-bill.
- Finally on Thursday, Italy will look to sell the new 12-month BOT, with details to be announced Monday evening.
RATINGS: Some Affirmations On Friday
Sovereign rating reviews of note released after hours on Friday included:
- Fitch affirmed Switzerland at AAA; Outlook Stable
- DBRS Morningstar confirmed Ireland at AA (low), Stable Trend
