EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Still Bullish
Jul-10 17:00
- RES 4: 1.1985 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
- RES 1: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1688 @ 16:22 BST Jul 10
- SUP 1: 1.1653 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1628 Low Jul 10
- SUP 3: 1.1590 Low Jun 25
- SUP 4: 1.1478-day EMA
EURUSD traded to new weekly lows Thursday. The latest pullback appears corrective and the trend condition remains bullish. Note that moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant medium-term uptrend. Furthermore, corrections have been shallow. This also reinforces the trend condition. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb to 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. Key short-term support hasbeen pierced at the 1.1653 20-day EMA.
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US LABOR MARKET: US Planning To Send 9,000 Migrants To Guantanamo Bay
Jun-10 16:59
- Politico reports that the US is planning to send 9,000 migrants to Guantanamo Bay, starting next week.
- "That would be an exponential increase from the roughly 500 migrants who have been held for short periods at the base since February and a major step toward realizing a plan President Donald Trump announced in January to use the facility to hold as many as 30,000 migrants."
- It’s another reminder of the significant changes in labor force dynamics over the past year. Immigration inflows, at least judging by border encounters, had started to fall in Jun 2024 after a Biden executive order tightened the southern border but they have since tumbled under the second Trump administration.
- April saw nationwide encounters of 29k, a -88% Y/Y reduction. For context, they averaged a monthly 144k in 2H24, 240k in 1H24 and 277k in 2023 as a whole.
- Deportations are going a step further and reducing the labor force. It increasingly puts long-term breakeven estimates of payrolls in the ~100k region into focus, in terms of how to compare the relative strength of last week’s May payrolls report as well as upcoming ones.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: WI 3Y
Jun-10 16:56
- WI holding retreats slightly ahead of the $58B 3Y note auction (91282CNH0) cut-off at 1300ET.
- 3Y WI is currently at 3.967%, 14.3bp cheap to last month's stop: 3.824% high yield vs. 3.826% WI
OPTIONS: Livelier Session For European Rates, Varied Structures
Jun-10 16:52
Tuesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- DUQ5 107.2/107.1/106.9 put ladder paper paid 0 for the 1 on 5K.
- ERQ5 98.37c, bought for 1 in 6k
- ERU5 98.875 calls see 5K trading at 0.25, volume at that price up to 11.5K on the day
- ERU5 98.125^ trades 15 in 5K all day paper to paper
- ERZ5 97.81/97.93/98.50/98.62 call condor 3K given at 10.5
- ERH6 98.50/98.25/97.75p fly bought 2.75 in 5k
- SFIU5 95.90/95.75/95.60 put fly 12K given at 1.25
- SFIZ5 96.15/96.00 put spread 15K given at 4.25
