GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $4353.5 - High Dec 12
- PRICE: $4333.7@ 07:27 GMT Dec 18
- SUP 1: $4219.4/4097.5 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $3998.1 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 4: $3800.00 Round number support
The trend structure in Gold remains bullish. The bear phase between Oct 20 - 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $4097.5. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.
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US TSY OPTIONS: TYZ5 112.00 Puts Bought
{US} US TSY OPTIONS: TYZ5 112.00 puts paper paid 0-03 on 10K.
BRENT TECHS: (F6) Short-Term Resistance Intact For Now
- RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg
- RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $65.95 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $63.65 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 18
- SUP 1: $59.97 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
A sell-off in Brent futures on Nov 12 highlights a bearish development. A resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.97, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Note it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle remains in play - for now. A breach of resistance at $65.95, the Oct 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term.
BTP TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Phase
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.87 @ Close Nov 17
- SUP 1: 120.53 Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: 120.15 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 119.73 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
- SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25
The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Note that the contract has breached support at 120.74, the Aug 5 high, and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 120.76. A continuation lower would highlight potential for a deeper correction and expose 120.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.94, the Oct 17 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
