EURGBP TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023
- RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8732/8751 Intraday high / High Sep 25
- PRICE: 0.8744 @ 16:25 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 0.8681/8656 50-day EMA / Low Aug 10
- SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
- SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
The underlying trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and initial support levels are holding for now. The first support to monitor lies at 0.8680, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 0.8633, the Sep 15 low. Key trend support lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger remains at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSY OPTIONS: Nov'25 10Y Skew Play
- +15,000 TYX5 111/112 put spds 1 over 114 calls ref 112-22.5
CANADA DATA: Pullback In Aug Manufacturing Sales In Line With Monthly Volatility
StatCan's advance estimate of manufacturing sales for August is for a 1.5% M/M decrease, which if confirmed would mark the first decrease in 3 months and partially reversing the 2.5% rise in July (all in value and not volume terms).
- As usual with the advance estimate there were no further details available, though StatCan reports the largest decreases were in the transportation equipment and food subsectors.
- Even with the M/M decrease, the comparison with the sharp drawdown in March /April/May means that manufacturing sales were due to post a 6-month best -1.5% on a 3M/3M annualized basis.
- As with other indicators, though, this one suggests the nascent pickup in activity and sentiment in various sectors in the summer - after the worst of the US-Canada trade conflict concerns - has subsequently petered out, with activity remaining volatile.
- We get July GDP data on Friday, with expectations and the advance estimate showing +0.1% M/M after -0.1% in June. Per StatCan's advance GDP release, there were no notable mentions of July manufacturing output :"Increases in real estate and rental and leasing, mining and quarrying (except oil and gas) and wholesale trade were partially offset by a decrease in retail trade" in the month.
- July manufacturing sales were confirmed at 2.5% last week, with wholesale sales ex-petroleum growth reported at 1.2% - so three of the four major "sales" categories point to a pickup in July activity (retail sales fell 0.8% however), in line with the StatCan advance anecdote).
- For August, retail sales are estimated to have bounced (1.0% M/M).
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage bounces to $29.172B with 22 counterparties this afternoon from $14.402B Tuesday. Compares to $11.363B on Friday, September 16 - lowest level since early April 2021. The year's high usage stands at $460.731B on June 30.
