EURGBP TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

Oct-17 18:00
  • RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
  • RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
  • RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
  • RES 1: 0.8725/8751 High Oct 10 & 17 / High Sep 25  
  • PRICE: 0.8701 @ 16:44 BST Oct 17
  • SUP 1: 0.8678/8656 50-day EMA / Low Aug 10
  • SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15 
  • SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 and key support 
  • SUP 4: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is in consolidation mode. The trend condition is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Support to monitor lies at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8678. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 0.8633, the Sep 15 low. Key trend support lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. 

Historical bullets

FED: Likely URLs For Fed Decision

Sep-17 17:56

Links (likely URLs based on previous meetings, would only go live at 1400ET):

FED: Reminder - MNI Instant Answers Questions For FOMC

Sep-17 17:51

Reminder - The questions that we have selected for Instant Answers for the September FOMC statement and SEP (scheduled to be released at 1400ET):

  • Fed funds rate range maximum
  • Number of dissenters to size of rate move
  • Number of dissenters preferring a larger cut
  • Median projection of fed funds rate at end-2025
  • Median projection of fed funds rate at end-2026
  • Median projection of fed funds rate at end-2027
  • Median projection of fed funds rate at end-2028
  • Median projection of longer run fed funds rate
  • Number of 2025 dots > 4.125%
  • Number of 2025 dots > 3.875%
  • Number of 2025 dots < 3.875%
  • Number of 2025 dots < 3.625%

ECB: Well Advised To Remain Cautious - Nagel

Sep-17 17:42
  • Bundebank President Nagel says in a speech that the ECB is well advised to remain cautious.
  • “I consider the decision of the ECB Council 's decision last Thursday to keep key interest rates constant was the right one. We are well advised to remain cautious given the uncertainties. Our approach of making decisions based on data and on a meeting-by-meeting basis has proven successful. With the current monetary policy stance, we are well positioned to respond to unexpected changes.”
  • His speech also looks at some structural reasons behind weak German exports amidst a deterioration in competitiveness, including high energy prices, a shortage of skilled workers and supply chain disruptions.
  • More broadly on the EU, he adds: "The former ECB- President Mario Draghi has put forward numerous proposals for how Europe can become more competitive. Now it's time to implement these proposals. So far, only a fraction of them have been realized." That broadly echoes Lagarde's growing calls for reform.