GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $3783.2 - 1.618 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3744.2 - 1.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: $3705.2 - 1.382 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: $3703.1 - High Sep 16
- PRICE: $3635.5 @ 07:24 BST Sep 18
- SUP 1: $3614.0 - Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: $3558.4 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3457.5 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20
Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and short-term weakness is for now, considered corrective. A fresh all-time high, once again this week, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3705.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3558.4, the 20-day EMA. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
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GOLD TECHS: Trading In A Range
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16
- RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23
- PRICE: $3336.7 @ 07:25 BST Aug 19
- SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this is highlighted by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase - a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
BUNDS: The Yield resistance holds
- There's very little change for Bund going into the European session, the 2.80% Yield level has again held Yesterday, after also holding on Friday.
- As such, the initial support in Bund remains unchanged at around 128.57, printed a 128.64 low in Futures and a 2.791% high in Yield on Friday.
- Small resistance is at 129.18, followed by 129.62.
- There are no Tier 1 Data out of Europe, and the Canadian CPI will be the only notable release for North America Today.
- Main Focus this Week is on the UK CPI (wed), PMIs (thu), Japan CPI, and all eyes on Powell (fri).
- SUPPLY: UK £1.6bn 2035 Linkers (won't impact Gilts). Germany €4.5bn 5yr Bobl (equates to 42k Bobl) should weigh into the Bidding Deadline.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Bowman (x2).
BRENT TECHS: (V5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.83 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $66.30 @ 07:09 BST Aug 19
- SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
- SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures remain in a bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
