EURUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
• RES 2: 1.1573 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.1495 High June 05
• PRICE: 1.1420 @ 15:53 BST Jun 9
• SUP 1: 1.1340 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1216/1.1065 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
• SUP 3: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.0943 Low Apr 10

EURUSD is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The breach of 1.1419, the May 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the trend and has opened 1.1573, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch lies at 1.1216, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme. Initial support is at 1.1334, the 20-day EMA.     

• Although off its worst levels, the USD index remains lower on the session, hovering in close proximity to pre-NFP levels. Overall, this keeps the prevailing theme of a weaker greenback intact, and the DXY within range of the early June pullback low at 98.351 - a key level of support.
• Ahead of U.S.-China talks in London today, President Trump authorized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's team to negotiate away recent restrictions on the sale of a wide variety of technology and other products to China, according to people familiar with the matter. This is keeping risk sentiment buoyant to start the week.
• This cautious optimism is prompting AUD and NZD to outperform on Monday. NZDUSD has broken back above an important zone of resistance between 0.6025/40. Spot continues to threaten a daily close above the US election related highs, signalling scope for a more protracted recovery towards 0.6168, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep '24 - Apr '25 selloff. Initial resistance is seen at 0.6080, last week's high print.
• For AUDUSD, last Thursday’s close above 0.6500 was the highest in 6 months, and Monday’s resumption of strength keeps trend signals bullish. The pair’s recent climb signals scope for an initial climb to 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement and the Nov 25 high.
• Elsewhere, the likes of JPY, EUR and GBP have all risen between 0.2-0.3% to start the week. USDJPY displayed its usual volatility in posting a near 100 pip range and has settled just below 144.50 as we approach the APAC crossover. EURUSD is consolidating back above 1.14 as markets continue to digest the latest ECB decision and await further US data, most notably – the May inflation release on Wednesday.
• Uk labour market data kicks off Tuesday’s calendar, while markets will remain sensitive to global trade developments.

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• The week ahead sees some important domestic events: the Spending Review, the release of labour market data, a speech by BOE ED of Markets Saporta and the release of the quarterly consumer BOE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey.
• We look at the main highlights of the Spending Review from a market perspective.
• We also look ahead to BOE ED of Markets Vicky Saporta's key speech on Wednesday.
• We preview this week's upcoming syndication and gilt auction.