GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $3444.5 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $3428.7 @ 06:08 BST Jun 13
- SUP 1: $3325.3/3249.9 - 20- and 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 3: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
- SUP 4: $3100.0 - Round number support
A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and this week’s gains reinforce bullish conditions. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3255.2, the 50-day EMA.
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EURUSD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.1625 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1608 High Nov 9 2021
- RES 2: 1.1440/1573 High Apr 23 / 21 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.1249/1381 20-day EMA / High May 2 - 6
- PRICE: 1.1191 @ 06:06 BST May 14
- SUP 1: 1.1086/65 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 12
- SUP 2: 1.1026 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.0943 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 1.0857 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Apr 21 bull cycle
EURUSD maintains a softer tone and the pair traded sharply lower Monday. Recent weakness appears corrective and key trend signals remain bullish. Note that a key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.10786, remains intact. A clean break of this average would undermine the uptrend. A key resistance to watch is 1.1381, the May 2 - 6 high. Clearance of this level would signal the end of the correction.
BUND TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 133.00 round number resistance
- RES 3: 132.56 High Feb 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 131.72/132.03 High May 7 / High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 130.53/72 50- and 20-day EMA values
- PRICE: 129.45 @ 05:46 BST May 14
- SUP 1: 129.37 Low May 12
- SUP 2: 129.28 50.0% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 rally
- SUP 3: 129.02 Low Apr 10
- SUP 4: 128.60 Low Apr 9 and a key support
A short-term bearish theme in Bund futures remains intact. The contract has traded through support at the 50-day EMA, at 130.53. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and this week’s extension strengthens the current bearish threat. A continuation lower opens 129.28, a Fibonacci retracement. It is still possible that the move down since Apr 22 is a correction. Initial resistance to watch is 130.72, the 20-day EMA.
JGBS: Cash Bonds Little Changed, 5Y Supply Tomorrow, Q1 GDP On Friday
JGB futures are stronger, +7 compared to the settlement levels, after dealing in a relatively narrow range in today’s Tokyo session.
- There has been no net movement in cash US tsys in today's Asia-Pac session after being little changed yesterday following the release of April CPI data.
- Cash JGB movements are bounded by +/- 1bp out to the 30-year and 3bps richer beyond.
- “Japanese 30-year yields avoided climbing above 3% this week after a solid auction, but that looks like a temporary reprieve as rising German yields are likely to drag JGBs in the same direction. Indeed, bunds appear to be heading back toward the levels seen in March, even though the European Central Bank is forecast to lower interest rates again this year. Similar to Japan, the background is increased spending, especially on defence which will add to upward pressure on long-term rates.” (per BBG)
- The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.7bps higher at 1.451% versus the cycle high of 1.596%.
- Swap rates are 1bp lower to 2bp higher, with a steepening bias. Swap spreads are mixed.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see International Investment Flow and Machine Tool Orders data alongside 5-year supply. Q1 GDP (P) is due on Friday.
