GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22  
• RES 3: 1.3500 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 1.3434 High Sep 26 ‘24 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3424 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.3396 @ 16:41 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 1.3234 Low Apr 23 
• SUP 2: 1.3153 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3041/2966 Low Apr 14 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 1.2807 Low Apr 10 

Bullish trend conditions in GBPUSD remain intact and today’s recovery confirms the latest pullback as corrective. Note that a deeper retracement would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 1.3153, the 20-day EMA. The pair has recently breached 1.3207, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger, resuming the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3434, the Sep 26 ‘24 high.   

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/28 $5B #Alphabet  $750M 5Y +32, $1.25B 10Y +47, $1.5B 30Y +62, $1.5B 40Y +70
• 04/28 $2B #Keurig Dr Pepper $500M each: 1.5Y SOFR+58, 3Y +68, 5Y +83, 10Y +98
• 04/28 $1.125B #Consumer Energy $500M +5Y +67, $625M 10Y +87
• 04/28 $1.1B #Northern States Power $600M 10Y +83, $500M 30Y +98
• 04/28 $1.1B #CBRE Services $600M 5Y +120, $500M 10Y +135
• 04/28 $700M *Posco Holdings $400M 5Y +137.5, $300M 10Y +157.5
• 04/28 $700M *Kookmin Bank $400M 3Y +77.5, $300M 5Y +82.5
• 04/28 $500M #Colgate Palmolive 5Y +38
• 04/28 $500M #DR Horton +5Y +103
• 04/28 $Benchmark Philip Morris 3Y +58, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75, 10Y +93
• 04/28 $Benchmark Procter & Gamble 5Y +55a, 10Y +70a
• 04/28 $Benchmark General Dynamics 10Y +110a
• 04/28 $Benchmark World Bank 3Y +38a, 7Y +57a

The dollar has traded on the backfoot Monday amid a bull steepening move for treasuries and renewed modest pressure on major US equity benchmarks. This has particularly benefitted the Japanese yen and Swiss Franc, while GBP is also among the best performers in G10. A lack of concrete details surrounding the US administration’s progress on trade deals has allowed the broader dollar weakening trend to resume, although the plethora of data this week and month-end could provide obstacles to short-term sentiment.

For USDJPY, tests of the 144 handle have capped the topside for now, and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. As such, USDJPY has been edging steadily lower across Monday, printing fresh session lows around 142.40 as we approach the APAC crossover. Key short-term technical parameters are seen at 144.47, the 20-day EMA, and 139.89, last week’s low.

USDCHF held the prior breakdown point well last week around 0.8333 and late weakness towards the 0.82 mark also appears to be confirming last week’s pullback as corrective.

GBPUSD is notably back above 1.34 and spot trades in close proximity to the 1.3424 bull trigger (as well as 1.3434, the Sept'24 high). This is a key medium-term area for cable and it will be eagerly monitored in coming sessions. Further strength would signal scope for a move towards 1.3500 Round number resistance and 1.3550, the Feb 24 ’22 high.

Price action has prompted EURGBP to trade through a major support area we flagged last week at 0.8520-31 - marking both the early April pullback low as well as the 50% retracement of the tariff-inspired upleg off 0.8323.

Downward pressure on equities has relatively hindered the progress for the likes of EUR, AUD and NZD. However, EURUSD is pushing back above 1.14 in late trade and AUDUSD is within 20 pips of a cluster of highs from last week around 0.6435, which represent four-month highs for the pair.

Eurozone inflation data kicks off Tuesday, and in the US, JOLTS and consumer confidence data are highlights.