GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.3434 High Sep 26 ‘24 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 1.3305 High Oct 2 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.3207/3274 High Oct 3 ‘24 / High Apr 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3016 50.0% retracement of the Apr 3 - 7 pullback    
• PRICE: 1.2744 @ 16:45 BST Apr 7
• SUP 1: 1.2726 Low Apr 7
• SUP 2: 1.2679 Low Mar 4
• SUP 3: 1.2671 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28 

Monday’s rejection of a further push higher in the pair works against constructive outlook in the initial tariff reaction. Key support at the 1.2792 50-day EMA has given way . The bull trigger remains 1.3207, the Apr 3 high. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend for now. 

• +7,000 TUM5 104-00.75, buy through 104-00.38 post time offer at 1312:25ET, DV01 $269,000. The 2 Y contract trades 103-29.25 last

• Headlines surrounding China and further retaliatory tariffs have kept AUD under pressure Monday, and the general US dollar strength through the session has deepened the significant AUDUSD selloff.
• Price action has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late September. Today’s fresh cycle low and extension below the 0.60 mark reinforces a bear theme, which has paved the way for an extension towards 0.5931 next, a Fibonacci projection. Levels of note on the downside include:
  • SUP 1: 0.5900 Round number support
  • SUP 2: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
  • SUP 3: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing