AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.6644 High Apr 9
- RES 3: 0.6542 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6516 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6481 Low Apr 1 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 0.6455 @ 07:26 BST Apr 18
- SUP 1: 0.6389 Low Apr 16
- SUP 2: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
- SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6315 Low Oct 31
AUDUSD remains vulnerable following last week’s move lower and this week’s extension. Key support at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low, has recently been cleared highlighting an important technical breach that has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6339, the Nov 10 ‘23 low. Firm resistance is seen at 0.6542, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
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EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 3: 5074.70 1.236 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5000.00 Psychological round number
- RES 1: 4988.00 High Mar 14
- PRICE: 4925.00 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 4867.30 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4771.00 Low Feb 22
- SUP 3: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 4626.00 Low Feb 13
The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to reflect positive market sentiment. Sights are on the psychological 5000.00 handle. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4867.30, the 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (All Times in GMT)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 20-Mar | 0001 | Feb | XpertHR pay deals for whole economy |
| 20-Mar | 0700 | Feb | CPI / PPI |
| 21-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Mar | 0930 | Mar | S&P Global PMI flash |
| 21-Mar | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate Decision | |
| 22-Mar | 0001 | Mar | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 22-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Retail Sales |
| 22-Mar | 0730 | FQ1 | DMO to release calendar for FQ1 (Apr-Jun) Ops |
| 22-Mar | 1100 | Mar | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 22-Mar | 1630 | Q2 | BOE to announce APF sales schedule for Q2-24 |
| 25-Mar | 1100 | Mar | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 25-Mar | 1415 | BOE Mann At Royal Economic Society Annual Conference | |
| 28-Mar | 0700 | 4Q | GDP Second Estimate / Quarterly account balance |
| 02-Apr | 0001 | Mar | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 02-Apr | 0930 | Feb | BOE M4 / Lending to Individuals |
| 02-Apr | 0930 | Mar | S&P Global Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 09-Apr | 0001 | Mar | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19 2023
- RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
- RES 2: 1.2946 2.00 projection of the Feb 14 - 22 - Mar 1 price swing
- RES 1: 1.2823/2894 High Mar 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2709 @ 06:19 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 1.2684 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2600 Low Mar 1
- SUP 3: 1.2536 Low Feb 14
- SUP 4: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
GBPUSD is trading lower this morning, extending the corrective pullback from 1.2894, the Mar 8 high and bull trigger. The pair is approaching support at 1.2684, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 1.2600, the Mar 1 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.2894. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 1.2946, a Fibonacci projection.
