AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish
- RES 4: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
- RES 2: 0.6663 High Jan 16
- RES 1: 0.6595/6625 High Feb 22 / High Jan 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: 0.6533 @ 16:16 GMT Mar 1
- SUP 1: 0.6478/6443 Low Feb 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 3: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10
AUDUSD is trading just above this week’s lows. Recent gains appear to have been a correction and the downtrend that started Dec 28, is intact. The pair has recently attempted to clear resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6567. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. A breach would open 0.6412, a Fibonacci retracement point.
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STIR: Mar'24 SOFR Call Interest
Pick-up in Mar'24 SOFR calls volume as Fed Chairman Powell discuses March is unlikely to see a rate cut at the mopment
- Block: +5,000 SFRH4 94.93/95.06 call spds, 2.0 at 0311:56ET.
- Appr 50,000 SFRH4 95.00 calls at 3.5 followed by SFRH 94.87/95.00 1x2 call spds on smaller size
US TSY FUTURES: Tsy Futures Pare Gains, March Cut Unlikely
Treasury futures pared gains as Powell asked about timing and pace of rate cuts when they occur.
Mar'24 futures receded to 112-03 (+15) as Chairman Powell stated he does not "think it is likely that the Committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting."
JGB TECHS: (H4) Corrective Phase Remains In Play - For Now
- RES 3: 149.53 - High Mar 22 (cont) and a key resistance
- RES 2: 148.74 - High Jul 24 (cont)
- RES 1: 147.74 - High Jan 15
- PRICE: 146.34 @ 19:32 GMT Jan 31
- SUP 1: 144.60 - Low Dec 08 / 11
- SUP 2: 143.44 - Low Oct 31 (cont)
- SUP 3: 143.29 - 2.618 proj of the Mar 22 - Apr 18 - May 12 swing
JGBs sold off last week, slipping to pullback lows of 145.86. The contract has recovered, however, a stronger reversal is required to signal the end of the recent corrective phase. A resumption of weakness would potentially open 144.60 support. On the upside, the bull trigger has been defined at 147.74, the mid-January high. A break would resume the uptrend. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend.
