EURUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish
- RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 2: 1.0697 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- PRICE: 1.0488 @ 15:39 GMT Dec 11
- SUP 1: 1.0461/0335 Low Dec 2 / Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg
EURUSD has pulled back from 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. A resistance around 1.0574, the 20-day EMA, remains intact - for now. A close above this average would highlight a clear breach of it and signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery towards 1.0697, the 50-day EMA. An extension higher would also allow for an unwinding of the recent oversold condition. The medium-term trend direction is down. First support lies at 1.0461, the Dec 2 low.
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EURUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend Low
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.0997 High Oct 8
- RES 2: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 1.0761/0850 Low Oct 23 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0648 @ 16:02 GMT Nov 11
- SUP 1: 1.0629 Low Nov 11
- SUP 2: 1.0611 38.2% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 2023
- SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 2023
A sharp sell-off on Nov 6 in EURUSD highlighted a resumption of the current downtrend. The move down resulted in a reversal of the recent Oct 23 - Nov 5 correction and a breach of 1.0761, the Oct 23 low. Today’s fresh cycle low reinforces the bearish theme and sights are on 1.0611, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0937, the Nov 5 and 6 high. A break would highlight a potential reversal.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Fed Speak Resumes; Fed SLOOS Lending Survey
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Nov-12 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (91.5, 92.0)
- Nov-12 1000 Fed Gov Waller moderated discussion bank conf
- Nov-12 1015 Richmond Fed Barkin summit discussion (text, Q&A)
- Nov-12 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.0%, --)
- Nov-12 1130 US Tsy $81B 13W, $72B 26W bill auctions
- Nov-12 1300 US Tsy $80B 42D CMB auction
- Nov-12 1400 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS)
- Nov-12 1400 MN Fed Kashkari moderated discussion (no text, media Q&A)
- Nov-12 1700 Philly Fed Harker on Fintech & AI (text, Q&A)
- Nov-12 1730 Richmond Fed Barkin speech (text, Q&A)
OPTIONS: Busier Session For Euro Rates
Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- ERZ4 97.25p, sold at 9.25 in 6.5k.
- ERZ4 97.12/97.25/97.37c fly sold at 2, multiple clips totalling 12.75k.
- ERZ4 97.25/97.12RR, sold the call at half in 29.75k (ref 97.17).
- ERH5 9800/98.25/98.50c fly sold at 2.5 in 4k
- ERH5 98.12/97.87/97.62/97.37p condor, bought for 13.25 in 4k
- ERM5 98.00/98.50cs vs 97.50/97.25ps, sold the cs at 12.25 in 5k (unwind)
- ERU5 98.12/97.62ps 1x2, sold the 1 at 7.75 in 5k
- 0RZ4 97.87p, bought for 4.75 in 18k vs 4.14k at 98.075 in ERZ5
- SFIZ5 95.75/95.50ps vs 96.00/96.50/97.00c fly, bought the fly for half in 2k
