MNI Brazil CB Review – Jan 2026: Copom Signals March Rate Cut

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Executive Summary

• The Copom decided unanimously to keep the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00% for a fifth consecutive meeting, as expected.
• Although the committee remained cautious amid unanchored inflation expectations and resilient activity, the accompanying statement struck a more dovish tone. Notably, the committee removed the tightening reference from its forward guidance and signalled a likely start to the easing cycle at the next meeting in March.
• Analysts are split on expecting a 25bp or 50bp cut at that meeting, dependent on the incoming data, with most seeing the Selic rate reaching 12.25%-12.50% by year-end.