GOLD TECHS: Trend Signals Point North

• RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $4381.5 - High Oct 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $4264.7 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 20 - 28 correction                   
• PRICE: $4207.0 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 10 
• SUP 1: $4155.2/4044.0 - 20- and 50-day EMA values 
• SUP 2: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: $3760.9 - Low Sep 29 

Gold is in consolidation mode. The trend condition is unchanged, the set-up remains bullish. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $4044.0. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.

• RES 4: $70.86 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 17 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.33 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $68.86 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.25 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $62.10 @ 07:06 GMT Dec 10 
• SUP 1: $59.93 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.92 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $58.11 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.22 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A bear threat in Brent futures remains present - the move down since Oct 24 highlights a bearish theme. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.93, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bear cycle. Key short-term resistance to watch has been defined at $65.25, the Oct 24 high. A breach of this level would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.

• Morgan Stanley has raised its BOE terminal rate forecast to 3.00% from 2.75% "as the balance of risks around our 2026 forecasts shifts slightly."
• MS "still expect the BoE to cut in December and February, but now see a skip in March, followed by further action in April and June, as inflation data continue to evolve favourably."
• This is below market pricing (which prices in around 56 bp of cuts from the current 4.00% rate) but it is not hugely inconsistent with other sell side views (14/23 of the analysts we track look for a 3.25% rate or lower with 8/23 looking for 3.00% or lower).