USDJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 152.43 0.764 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
- RES 3: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
- RES 2: 151.43 High Nov 16
- RES 1: 150.89 High Feb 13 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 150.14 @ 16:14 GMT Mar 1
- SUP 1: 149.21/148.28 Low Feb 29 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 147.63 Low Feb 7
- SUP 3: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
- SUP 4: 145.59 Low Jan 16
The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and Thursday’s sell-off appears to have been a correction. The pair pierced support at 149.66, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal potential for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 148.28. For bulls, a resumption of the trend would open 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 high and the Oct 1 ‘22 high and major resistance. The bull trigger is 150.89, Feb 13 high.
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USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 150.78 High Nov 17
- RES 3: 149.75 High Nov 22
- RES 2: 149.16 76.4% retracement of the Nov 13 - Dec 28 bull leg
- RES 1: 148.80 High Jan 19
- PRICE: 146.59 @ 19:22 GMT Jan 31
- SUP 1: 146.08 Low Jan 31
- SUP 2: 145.59 Low Jan 16
- SUP 3: 144.36 Low Jan 12 and key S/T support
- SUP 4: 143.42 Low Jan 9
The USDJPY trend outlook is unchanged and remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bull-mode set-up. This reinforces the current trend condition and highlights positive market sentiment. A resumption of gains would open 149.16, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at 144.36, the Jan 12 low. A break would signal a top
EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook Intact
- RES 4: 0.8768 High Nov 20
- RES 3: 0.8715 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8676 High Jan 3
- RES 1: 0.8576/8609 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 0.8529 @ 19:10 GMT Jan 31
- SUP 1: 0.8513 Low Jan 29
- SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: 0.8454 61.8% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
- SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023
EURGBP bears remain in the driver’s seat. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 0.8549, the Dec 11 low, strengthening the current bearish condition. Monday’s extension, further reinforces the downtrend. Sights are on 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low and a key support. The 50-day EMA, at 0.8609, is the initial firm resistance to watch. First resistance is at 0.8576, the 20-day EMA.
STIR: Back To 50/50 For March Cut, Only Modest Trimming Of 2024 Cuts
- Fed Funds futures are back to showing 12.5bp of cuts for the March FOMC (15bp pre announcement), back to pre-data levels.
- Further out, rates for June onwards sit 4-5bp higher having already pared some of the initial increase.
- Cumulative cuts: 12.5bp March, 34bp May, 60bp June and 141bp Dec, the latter still off the 135bp before ADP and ECI kickstarted today’s rally.
